美股前瞻02.11：AI“受害者”再遭抛售，降息预期提升难振风偏

Market Overview - The US retail sales data for December remained flat month-on-month, falling short of the expected growth of 0.4%, indicating a gradual weakening in consumer spending as the holiday season comes to an end [1] - Following the data release, the market slightly increased the probability of three interest rate cuts within the year, with two already fully priced in, leading to a significant drop of 6 basis points in the 10-year US Treasury yield, reaching a near one-month low [1] - The overall market sentiment was cautious ahead of the non-farm payroll report, resulting in a mixed performance across major indices, with the Nasdaq down 0.59% and the Dow Jones up 0.10% [1] Core Insights - The launch of an AI-based tax planning tool by the technology platform Altruist has raised concerns about AI's impact on traditional wealth management, leading to a drop of over 7% in Charles Schwab's stock, mirroring previous sell-offs in the insurance brokerage and software sectors [3] - The narrative surrounding AI's potential to replace professional roles in legal research, data organization, financial analysis, and code collaboration may continue to trigger rotational sell-offs in the short term [3] - Despite a recent stabilization in software stocks after significant declines, the overall sector remains fragile, with capital rotating into materials and utilities, which are less affected by AI trading [3] - The focus of trading is shifting from beneficiaries of favorable conditions to victims of adverse impacts, with previously concentrated sectors like computing power, networking, and energy showing signs of stagnation [3] - Concerns regarding AI threats are nearing a peak, and the recent declines in certain sectors may reflect an overpricing of short-term AI impacts, suggesting potential opportunities to capture mispriced assets within the sector [3] - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is expected to show job growth in the range of 60,000 to 80,000, with a better-than-expected result potentially boosting market confidence and alleviating recent selling pressures [3]