近期市场反馈及思考10：配置盘主导的债券行情如何演绎？

Group 1 - The bond market in January was characterized by a correction of pessimistic expectations rather than a reinforcement of easing expectations, with banks and insurance companies increasing their allocation while brokers and funds sold off [9][10] - The bond market may enter a phase of compressed spreads, with various types of spreads being targeted for excess returns, as the market approaches critical points without clear negative signals [10][11] - The core factors driving the configuration-led market include the ability of funding costs and deposit rates to decrease further, and whether the 10-year government bond can break through key levels [10][11] Group 2 - The primary contradictions in the bond market include asset allocation rebalancing, capital outflow from the stock market, and expectations of rising prices, with the first two being the most critical [11][12] - The relationship between stocks and bonds in 2026 continues to reflect a rebalancing of asset allocation, with the stock market showing signs of strength but still needing to monitor capital flows into equities [14][15] - The insurance sector is shifting its liabilities towards dividend insurance, which may affect its preference for long-term bonds, while fixed-income funds are facing challenges in attracting new liabilities [14][17] Group 3 - The continuous decline in the scale of credit bond ETFs since the beginning of the year, with a drop of 101 billion to 514.2 billion, indicates a potential stabilization as selling pressure eases and valuation improves [21][22] - The strong performance of perpetual bonds in early January can be attributed to several factors, including easing valuation pressures and increased demand from insurance companies [24] - The current credit strategy suggests extending duration to 3-5 years for high-grade bonds, while focusing on specific sectors and grades that offer value [25] Group 4 - The core theme in the convertible bond market is pricing elasticity, with demand remaining high despite supply constraints due to maturing bonds and strong redemption expectations [26][29] - The strategy for convertible bonds emphasizes the importance of maintaining adequate positions to achieve relative returns, as low positions may hinder performance [27] - Excess returns in the convertible bond market are expected to come from elastic varieties, particularly those with low premium rates and smaller market caps [29]