【冠通期货研究报告】PP日报：震荡运行-20260211

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - PP supply - demand pattern has limited improvement, but there are still expectations for the chemical industry to counter the "involution". With low upstream petrochemical inventory and the current basis being repaired, it is expected that PP will fluctuate within a range. Due to new production capacity of plastics being put into operation recently, its operating rate is higher than that of PP, and the concentrated demand for plastic film has not started yet. It is expected that the L - PP price difference will decline [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - As of the week of February 6, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 2.24 percentage points to 49.84% week - on - week, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. Among them, the operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of drawn yarn, decreased by 5.30 percentage points to 36.74% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline, slightly lower than the same period last year. On February 11, some overhauled units such as the first line of Zhongjing Petrochemical Phase II restarted, and the operating rate of PP enterprises rose to about 82.5%, at a slightly lower - than - neutral level. The production ratio of standard drawn yarn increased to about 30%. Petrochemical inventory reduction in February was acceptable, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. The cost side: the US and Iran will hold a new round of negotiations, but the US has warned ships flying the US flag to stay away from Iranian waters in the Strait of Hormuz as much as possible. The market is worried about a military conflict between the two sides, and crude oil prices rebounded. Recently, the number of overhauled units has decreased slightly. The prices of downstream BOPP films in some areas are stable, the operating rate of the downstream plastic weaving industry has declined, and its new orders are limited. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, more terminal enterprises are on holiday, and downstream stocking has mostly been completed [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions 3.2.1 Futures - The PP2605 contract opened higher, then reduced positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 6665 yuan/ton, the highest price was 6720 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6693 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.51%. The position decreased by 1731 lots to 486,837 lots [2]. 3.2.2 Spot - The spot prices of PP in various regions have partially declined. The drawn yarn is reported at 6310 - 6850 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: on February 11, some overhauled units such as the first line of Zhongjing Petrochemical Phase II restarted, and the operating rate of PP enterprises rose to about 82.5%, at a slightly lower - than - neutral level. The production ratio of standard drawn yarn increased to about 30%. - Demand side: as of the week of February 6, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 2.24 percentage points to 49.84% week - on - week, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. Among them, the operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of drawn yarn, decreased by 5.30 percentage points to 36.74% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline, slightly lower than the same period last year. - Petrochemical inventory: on Wednesday, the early petrochemical inventory was flat at 460,000 tons week - on - week, 15,000 tons lower than the same lunar period last year. Petrochemical inventory reduction was acceptable, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [4]. 3.4 Raw Material End - The Brent crude oil 04 contract rose above $69 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $825 per ton week - on - week [6].