策略点评:市场持续缩量,周期板块领涨
Tebon Securities·2026-02-11 13:11

Market Analysis - The A-share market experienced slight volume contraction and consolidation, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.09% to 4131.98 points on February 11, 2026. The overall trading volume was 2 trillion yuan, down from 2.12 trillion yuan the previous day [5][6]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) data exceeded market expectations, contributing to the outperformance of cyclical sectors. The PPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month in January, marking the fourth consecutive month of increase, with a growth rate 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous month [6][7]. - Key sectors such as construction materials, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemicals saw significant gains, with increases of 3.29%, 2.39%, and 2.18% respectively [6][7]. Bond Market - Government bond futures mostly rose, with the 30-year main contract increasing by 0.05% to 112.750 yuan. The 10-year main contract rose by 0.06% to 108.540 yuan [10]. - The People's Bank of China conducted a net injection of 403.5 billion yuan into the market, maintaining a stable liquidity expectation [10]. Commodity Market - The commodity market saw most prices rise, with lithium carbonate increasing by 9.18%. Basic metals also experienced gains, with nickel rising by 4.02% [10]. - The increase in nickel prices was attributed to production cuts in Indonesia, which reduced the approved nickel mining quota for 2026 compared to 2025 [10]. - The rise in lithium carbonate prices was influenced by low trading volumes ahead of the Spring Festival, with total industry inventory at a one-year low of 107,056 tons [10]. Trading Hotspots - Recent hot sectors include AI applications, commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, quantum technology, brain-computer interfaces, robotics, and consumer goods, with a focus on technological advancements and policy support [11][12]. - The report suggests a balanced allocation strategy in technology and consumer sectors, with an emphasis on low-cost entry points [13]. Core Thoughts Summary - The market is showing a differentiated upward trend, with a continuation of the spring rally. Short-term effects from the pre-holiday period are evident, and a balanced allocation in technology and consumption is recommended [13]. - The bond market is expected to remain favorable due to a generally loose monetary policy and ongoing demand for bond investments [13]. - In the commodity sector, fluctuations in precious metals are anticipated due to margin adjustments, while the long-term outlook remains positive [13].