【冠通期货研究报告】原油日报：原油震荡运行-20260211

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ eight member countries will maintain the original plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. The current situation is an off - season for crude oil demand. Due to the winter storm, EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories decreased more than expected, and refined oil inventories also decreased significantly, leading to a continuous reduction in overall oil product inventories. However, global crude oil floating storage is high, and the crude oil market remains in a supply - surplus pattern. The latest EIA January report has raised the surplus amplitude for 2026. With multiple geopolitical uncertainties and the weakening of the current cold snap, it is expected that crude oil prices will fluctuate within a range in the near future [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - OPEC+ eight member countries will maintain the plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. The winter storm led to an unexpected reduction in U.S. crude oil and refined oil inventories, but the global crude oil floating storage is high, and the market is in a supply - surplus pattern. Saudi Aramco has lowered the price of Arabian Light crude oil for Asia in March 2025 by 30 cents per barrel. Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil. The U.S. - Iran nuclear negotiations in Muscat have "temporarily" ended, and there are uncertainties in the Iranian geopolitical situation. The U.S. has adjusted tariffs on India, and India may increase crude oil purchases from the Middle East and the Americas. The Russia - Ukraine - U.S. talks have not made substantial progress on core issues, and the U.S. is seeking a cease - fire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by June [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main crude oil futures contract 2604 rose 0.91% to 476.8 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 471.9 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 478.8 yuan/ton, and an increase in open interest of 1649 to 45913 lots [2]. 3. Fundamental Tracking - EIA raised the 2026 WTI crude oil price by 0.79 dollars per barrel to 52.21 dollars per barrel, lowered the 2026 global oil demand forecast from 105.2 million barrels per day to 104.8 million barrels per day, and raised the 2026 global oil production forecast from 107.4 million barrels per day to 107.7 million barrels per day. IEA raised the 2026 global oil demand growth rate by 70,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day and raised the 2026 global oil production growth rate by 100,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day. On the evening of February 4, U.S. EIA data showed that for the week ending January 30, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 3.455 million barrels (expected to increase by 489,000 barrels), gasoline inventories increased by 685,000 barrels (expected to increase by 1.389 million barrels), refined oil inventories decreased by 5.553 million barrels (expected to decrease by 2.255 million barrels), and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 743,000 barrels [3]. 4. Supply - side Situation - OPEC's latest monthly report shows that OPEC's crude oil production in November was adjusted down by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.459 million barrels per day, and its production in December 2025 increased by 105,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 28.564 million barrels per day. Due to the winter storm, U.S. crude oil production in the week of January 30 decreased by 484,000 barrels per day to 13.215 million barrels per day, the largest decline since January 19, 2024. The four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products increased to 20.802 million barrels per day, a 2.54% increase compared to the same period last year. Among them, gasoline weekly production decreased by 6.90% month - on - month to 8.153 million barrels per day, and the four - week average production was 8.262 million barrels per day, a 0.44% decrease compared to the same period last year; diesel weekly production increased by 5.92% month - on - month to 4.31 million barrels per day, and the four - week average production was 4 million barrels per day, a 2.35% increase compared to the same period last year. Diesel and other oil products rebounded significantly month - on - month, driving the weekly supply of U.S. crude oil products to continue to increase by 3.28% month - on - month [4].