【冠通期货研究报告】塑料日报：震荡运行-20260211

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The plastics supply-demand pattern has limited improvement, but there are still expectations for the chemical industry to counter the involution. With low upstream petrochemical inventories and the current basis having been repaired, plastics are expected to fluctuate within a range. Due to new plastics production capacity coming on stream recently, the operating rate being higher than that of PP, and the concentrated demand for mulch film not yet starting, the L-PP spread is expected to narrow [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On February 11th, the restart of overhauled units such as the new HDPE at Dushanzi Petrochemical led to the plastics operating rate rising to around 92%, which is at a moderately high level. As of the week ending February 6th, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 4.03 percentage points week-on-week to 33.73%. Entering the Spring Festival holiday, orders and raw material inventories for agricultural films continued to decline, reaching relatively low levels in recent years, and orders for packaging films also decreased. Petrochemical destocking in February was decent, and current petrochemical inventories are at relatively low levels in recent years. On the cost side, crude oil prices rebounded due to market concerns about a potential military conflict between the US and Iran. New production capacities were put into operation in January 2026, and the plastics operating rate has slightly increased recently. The concentrated demand for mulch film has not started yet, and the operating rates of agricultural and packaging films have decreased, with downstream operating rates expected to continue to decline [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastics 2605 contract fluctuated with a reduction in positions, closing at 6787 yuan/ton, up 0.55% and above the 60-day moving average. The持仓 volume decreased by 8697 lots to 503,917 lots [2]. - Spot: The PE spot market partially declined, with price changes ranging from -100 to +0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was quoted at 6600 - 7020 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8280 - 8960 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6760 - 7990 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On February 11th, the restart of overhauled units such as the new HDPE at Dushanzi Petrochemical led to the plastics operating rate rising to around 92%, which is at a moderately high level [4]. - Demand: As of the week ending February 6th, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 4.03 percentage points week-on-week to 33.73%. Entering the Spring Festival holiday, orders and raw material inventories for agricultural films continued to decline, reaching relatively low levels in recent years, and orders for packaging films also decreased, with the overall downstream operating rate of PE showing a seasonal decline [4]. - Inventory: Petrochemical early inventory on Wednesday was flat week-on-week at 460,000 tons, 15,000 tons lower than the same period last lunar year. Petrochemical destocking was decent, and current petrochemical inventories are at relatively low levels in recent years [4]. - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 04 contract rose above $69 per barrel. The price of ethylene in Northeast Asia remained flat week-on-week at $695 per ton, and that in Southeast Asia remained flat week-on-week at $675 per ton [4].