每日核心期货品种分析-20260211

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - On February 11, 2026, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Carbonate lithium led the gains, while container shipping European routes led the losses. The capital flow varied among different contracts [5][6]. - Different futures products are affected by various factors such as supply - demand, macro - environment, and geopolitical situations, and their prices are expected to move within a certain range in the short term [8][10][11]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1. Futures Market Overview - As of the close on February 11, domestic futures main contracts mostly rose. Carbonate lithium rose over 9%, and沪镍 rose over 4%. Container shipping European routes fell over 1%, and coke, glass, and palm oil fell nearly 1%. Among stock index futures, IF fell 0.13%, IH rose 0.08%, IC rose 0.43%, and IM rose 0.01%. Among bond futures, TS remained flat, TF rose 0.05%, T rose 0.06%, and TL rose 0.05%. In terms of capital flow, IM 2603,沪金 2604, and carbonate lithium 2605 had capital inflows, while ten - year bond 2603, 30 - year bond 2603, and CSI 300 2603 had capital outflows [5][6]. 3.2. Market Analysis of Specific Futures - 沪铜: It opened low and closed high, with strong intraday fluctuations. In January, production was 1.57 million tons more than expected, and in February, it is expected to return to normal. The expected production in February decreased by 3.58 million tons month - on - month, a 3.04% decline, but increased by 8.06% year - on - year. The demand decreased marginally during the holiday. The copper price is greatly affected by the macro - environment, and the spot trading was light before the holiday [8]. - Carbonate lithium: It opened high and closed high, rising over 9%. The average price of battery - grade and industrial - grade carbonate lithium increased. The supply in February will decrease. The export of Chilean carbonate lithium in January increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The downstream demand is expected to strengthen, and the inventory is moving downstream. The retail sales of passenger cars increased year - on - year and month - on - month [10]. - Crude oil: OPEC+ eight member countries will maintain the plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. The demand is in the off - season, but the US crude oil inventory decreased more than expected. The global crude oil floating storage is high, and the supply is in surplus. The price of Arabian light crude oil to Asia was lowered. Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil. The geopolitical situation in Iran is uncertain, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range [11][12]. - Asphalt: The asphalt production rate decreased slightly week - on - week, and the expected production in February decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The downstream industry's production rate mostly declined, and the national shipment volume decreased. The refinery inventory rate decreased slightly. The supply of Venezuelan heavy crude oil is restricted, and the production and cost of domestic asphalt are affected. It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term, and reverse arbitrage is recommended [13][15]. - PP: The downstream production rate of PP decreased week - on - week, and the enterprise production rate increased. The petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in recent years. The cost is affected by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. The supply - demand pattern improvement is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow [16]. - Plastic: The plastic production rate increased, and the downstream production rate decreased. New production capacity was put into operation in January. The petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level. The cost is affected by the Middle East situation. The supply - demand pattern improvement is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow [17][18]. - PVC: The upstream calcium carbide price is stable. The PVC production rate increased slightly, and the downstream production rate decreased. The export order decreased after the price increase, and the social inventory increased. The real estate market is still in adjustment. It is expected to fluctuate within a range [19]. - Coking coal: It opened low and closed high, with a late - session decline. The supply of coking coal shrank significantly before the Spring Festival, and the customs clearance of Mongolian coal will be restricted during the holiday. The downstream inventory is still increasing, but the replenishment is approaching the end. It is expected to be weak and fluctuate before the holiday [21]. - Urea: It opened low and closed high, rising in a volatile manner. Most factories have completed order collection, and the spot price will be stable during the holiday. The daily production has reached 215,000 tons. The futures market sentiment is strong, and the inventory decreased significantly this week but is expected to increase slightly next week. It is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range before the holiday [22].