农产品日报-20260211

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Buy Rating (★★★): Soybean No.1, Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Corn [1] - Neutral Rating (★☆☆): Live Hogs, Eggs [1] Core Views - The 26/27 US soybean supply-demand balance sheet pressure is expected to decrease year-on-year, mainly through the development of biodiesel and trade negotiations to boost demand, which may encourage supply expansion, increase in area year-on-year, maintain high yields, and likely lead to inventory reduction, thus boosting CBOT soybean prices [2][3] - The US Department of Agriculture's February report on soybeans is overall neutral to slightly bearish, but the bearish logic has been mostly priced in, and the mention of China considering buying more US soybeans is expected to boost US soybean exports [5] - The Malaysian palm oil report is bullish, with production lower than expected, exports higher than expected, and inventory showing a month-on-month decline [3] - The US biodiesel policy in 2026 is favorable, with a strong RIN price and improved biodiesel enterprise profits, which is likely to support the price of US soybean oil [3] - The news of Canada's rapeseed resuming normal imports to China and the appearance of China's further procurement of rapeseed shipments are suppressing the price of rapeseed oil [3] - The corn market is expected to have little fundamental change before the Spring Festival, and the short-term Dalian corn futures may have greater fluctuations after the festival [6] - The live hog market needs to be wary of the large supply pressure after the Spring Festival, and pay close attention to the price difference structure of fat hogs [7] - The egg market is expected to see a decline in industry inventory in the first half of 2026, and there may be opportunities to go long at low prices after the basis of the first-half contracts narrows after the Spring Festival [8] Summary by Commodity Soybean No.1 - The futures market has significantly increased positions, and the market sentiment is optimistic. Pay attention to the movement of funds before the festival. The current spot market trading is light. The recent policy-side soybean auction prices are strong, which has boosted the market. The US Department of Agriculture has raised Brazil's soybean production, and the US soybean supply-demand has not been adjusted, with a bearish report. However, US soybeans still rose, supported by optimistic export expectations and soybean oil [2] Soybean Meal & Rapeseed Meal - The USDA February report shows that US soybean data has not been adjusted compared to January. Globally, the soybean production forecast is 428 million tons, an increase of 1.025 million tons from the previous year and 2.5 million tons from the January forecast. The report is overall neutral to slightly bearish, but the bearish logic has been mostly priced in, and the mention of China considering buying more US soybeans is expected to boost US soybean exports. Rapeseed meal is boosted by the news of China-Canada cooperation [5] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil & Rapeseed Oil - Near the holiday, the soybean, palm, and rapeseed oil futures markets are reducing positions, and prices are fluctuating. The US soybean supply-demand report is bearish, but US soybeans still rose. The 26/27 US soybean supply-demand balance sheet pressure is expected to decrease, which is likely to boost CBOT soybean prices. The Malaysian palm oil report is bullish, with high production and high exports. The US biodiesel policy is favorable, which is likely to support the price of US soybean oil. The news of Canada's rapeseed resuming normal imports to China and the appearance of China's further procurement of rapeseed shipments are suppressing the price of rapeseed oil [3] Corn - The main corn contract 02605 has increased positions by nearly 200,000 lots and risen by 1.58%. The US Department of Agriculture's February report on corn has little adjustment, and the market reaction is flat. The fundamental situation may not change much before the Spring Festival, and the short-term Dalian corn futures may have greater fluctuations after the festival [6] Live Hogs - Live hog futures are rebounding with reduced positions, while the spot price continues to decline slightly. The industry's出栏 weight is still high, and there is a need to be wary of large supply pressure after the Spring Festival [7] Eggs - The spot price of eggs is stable, and the futures market shows a pattern of near-term strength and long-term weakness. After the Spring Festival, pay attention to the opening price of eggs. Due to the low replenishment in the second half of 2025, the industry's inventory is expected to continue to decline in the first half of 2026, and there may be opportunities to go long at low prices after the basis of the first-half contracts narrows [8]