Guohai Securities·2026-02-11 13:57Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights the growth of the instant delivery sector, driven by the rise of e-commerce platforms and the increasing acceptance of instant retail among consumers. The company is positioned as the largest third-party instant delivery platform in China, having crossed the breakeven point and entered a new growth phase [7][12]. - The company has shown steady revenue growth since its establishment, with a projected revenue CAGR of approximately 34.3% from 2020 to 2024. In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 10.236 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 48.81% [39][7]. - The report anticipates significant revenue growth for the company, projecting revenues of 21.973 billion yuan, 33.956 billion yuan, and 40.901 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 39.54%, 54.54%, and 20.45% [83][82]. Business Development - The company has two main business segments: same-city delivery and last-mile delivery. The same-city delivery segment is benefiting from the growth of the instant retail industry, with a notable increase in revenue from business-to-business (B2B) services [27][21]. - In the first half of 2025, the B2B same-city delivery business generated revenue of 4.467 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55.4%, while the business-to-consumer (B2C) segment generated 1.312 billion yuan, up 12.7% year-on-year [27][26]. - The last-mile delivery segment also saw significant growth, with revenue reaching 4.457 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 56.9% [31]. Industry Outlook - The instant retail industry is expected to accelerate, with the non-food delivery market projected to grow at a rate of approximately 27.7% in 2026, while the food delivery market is expected to grow at 5.9% [49][49]. - The report emphasizes the importance of logistics infrastructure and rider capacity as critical strategic resources for expansion in the instant delivery sector, with an expected CAGR of 17% for the industry from 2025 to 2028 [55][55]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 2.38 billion yuan, 4.52 billion yuan, and 6.87 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 79.98%, 89.54%, and 51.95% [83][82]. - The report projects adjusted net profits of 3.76 billion yuan, 5.05 billion yuan, and 7.55 billion yuan for the same years, indicating strong profitability growth [83][82].