国投期货化工日报-20260211

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene, Polypropylene, Plastic, Benzene, Styrene, PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Bottle Chip, Urea, Caustic Soda, Glass: ☆☆☆, representing a clearer long/short trend, and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Methanol, PVC: なな☆, specific meaning not clearly defined in the given information [1] - Pure Benzene: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias, with a driving force for an upward trend, but poor operability on the market [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The market conditions of various chemical products are affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, device operation, and seasonal factors, showing different trends and investment opportunities [2][3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures: The main contract fluctuated and closed up. The market news guidance was limited, and enterprises mainly maintained stable prices for shipments. The downstream factories entered the market for rigid - demand purchases at low prices, and the overall trading remained stable [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures: The main contracts fluctuated within a narrow range. For polyethylene, the supply - side pressure continued, and the demand - side support weakened. In the short term, the mainstream price might show a weak - stable trend. For polypropylene, the demand for pre - holiday raw material replenishment weakened, and the supply was expected to increase, with a weak downward trend [2] Polyester - PX and PTA: Their prices fluctuated and rebounded. PX had more long - term allocation opportunities in the first half of the year, but currently the demand was weak, and the processing margin declined. PTA was accumulating inventory, and the processing margin was under pressure. The shutdown of a 2.5 - million - ton device in East China would ease the inventory accumulation pressure [3] - Ethylene glycol: The supply shrank, and the price rebounded but remained in a range - bound state. In the second quarter, the supply - demand situation might improve temporarily, but it was still under long - term pressure due to capacity growth [3] - Short fiber: It had a good supply - demand pattern with high load and low inventory. However, downstream orders were weak, and the profit was thin. The processing margin fluctuated, and the absolute price followed the raw material price [3] - Bottle chip: The processing margin was repaired under low load and relatively low inventory, but there was still long - term capacity pressure. It fluctuated with raw materials in the short term, and attention should be paid to the inventory performance after the Spring Festival [3] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene: The spot price generally rose, and the domestic output continued to increase. The downstream comprehensive capacity utilization rate increased, and the port inventory in East China was basically flat. The supply - demand pattern was expected to improve after the Spring Festival, and the port inventory might decline slowly [5] - Styrene: The futures main contract fluctuated within a narrow range. The domestic supply was expected to increase, and the downstream demand was expected to decline. The fundamentals might weaken in the short term [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol: The import volume increased, the coastal demand was still weak, and the port inventory increased slightly. The domestic production started to increase, and the downstream备货 was active. The fundamentals were still weak, but the short - term market was significantly affected by geopolitical situations. The inventory might decline slowly after the Spring Festival [6] - Urea: The futures and spot prices were stable. Although the daily output was high, the factory orders continued to progress, and the production enterprises' inventory decreased significantly this week. The demand was expected to decline before the Spring Festival, and the market might strengthen after the Spring Festival [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC: It fluctuated within a narrow range. The factory inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased. The industry would enter the seasonal inventory - accumulation stage. The cost support strengthened, and the export situation was good. It was recommended to buy on dips [7] - Caustic soda: It fluctuated during the day. The industry start - up fluctuated slightly and remained at a high level. The inventory decreased significantly but still had pressure. It was expected to operate near the cost [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash: It fluctuated. The inventory continued to rise, and the supply remained at a high level. The downstream procurement sentiment was poor. It was recommended to short on rebounds in the short term and wait and see when the price fell near the cost. The strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash could continue to be held [8] - Glass: It fluctuated. The inventory increased slightly, and there was pressure for inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival. The industry profit was weak, and the production capacity continued to be compressed. It was recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying at a low - valued structural position [8]