债市基本面高频数据跟踪：2026年2月第1周：生产较往年节前坚挺

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall production is more robust than in previous years before the Spring Festival, but there are differences in various production indicators; the improvement trend of the new - house sales volume in 30 cities has weakened; the decline of pig prices has widened; and oil prices have risen [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Economic Growth: Production is More Robust than in Previous Years before the Spring Festival 3.1.1 Production - Power plant daily consumption shows seasonal decline: On February 10, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 792,000 tons, a 2.8% decrease from February 3; on February 8, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 2.03 million tons, an 8.6% decrease from January 30 [4][11]. - Blast furnace operating rate rises before the festival: On February 6, the national blast furnace operating rate was 79.6%, a 0.5 - percentage - point increase from January 30; the capacity utilization rate was 85.7%, a 0.3 - percentage - point increase. The blast furnace operating rate of Tangshan steel mills was 92.3%, a 2.5 - percentage - point increase [4][16]. - Tire operating rate is more robust than in previous Spring Festivals: On February 5, the operating rate of all - steel truck tires was 60.7%, a 1.7 - percentage - point decrease from January 29; the operating rate of semi - steel car tires was 72.8%, a 2.1 - percentage - point decrease. The operating rate of looms in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region shows a seasonal decline [4][18]. 3.1.2 Demand - The improvement trend of new - house sales volume in 30 cities weakens: From February 1 - 10, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 185,000 square meters, a 27.3% increase from January, a 116.3% increase from February last year, and a 3.2% increase from February 2024 [4][23]. - The retail growth of the auto market strengthens: In February, retail sales increased by 54% year - on - year, and wholesale sales increased by 46% year - on - year [4][25]. - Most steel prices decline: On February 10, compared with February 3, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil were flat, down 1.3%, down 0.6%, and down 0.1% respectively [4][31]. - The decline of cement prices slows down before the festival: On February 10, the national cement price index decreased by 0.3% compared with February 3 [4][32]. - Glass prices fluctuate within a narrow range: On February 10, the active futures contract price of glass was 1,079 yuan/ton, a 0.6% increase from February 3 [4][38]. - The decline of the container shipping freight rate index slows down: On February 6, the CCFI index decreased by 4.5% compared with January 30, and the SCFI index decreased by 3.8% [4][42]. 3.2 Inflation: The Decline of Pig Prices Widens 3.2.1 CPI - The decline of pig prices widens: On February 10, the average wholesale price of pork was 18.3 yuan/kg, a 1.6% decrease from February 3 [4][47]. - The agricultural product price index declines moderately: On February 10, the agricultural product wholesale price index decreased by 0.3% compared with February 3 [4][53]. 3.2.2 PPI - Oil prices rise: On February 10, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were $72.4 and $64.0 per barrel respectively, a 3.6% and 1.2% increase from February 3 [4][55]. - Copper and aluminum prices decline: On February 10, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum decreased by 2.0% and 0.7% respectively compared with February 3 [4][59]. - The domestic commodity index turns to decline month - on - month: On February 10, the Nanhua Industrial Products Index increased by 0.01% compared with February 3, and the CRB index decreased by 0.4% [4][59].