Guolian Minsheng Securities·2026-02-11 15:19Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Air China, highlighting their potential to benefit from the growth in international travel demand [2][3]. Core Insights - The growth in inbound tourism demand is expected to become a long-term trend, with significant opportunities for Chinese airlines to expand their international capacity, particularly in Europe, the Middle East, and Central Asia [2][15]. - The report predicts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of up to 15% for international passenger flow for Chinese airlines over the next three years, driven by the gradual recovery of inbound tourism and the slow recovery of foreign airlines' capacity [12][13][15]. Summary by Sections 1. Policy: Visa Relaxation and Local Support - The report discusses the expansion of visa-free entry policies, with China implementing unilateral visa exemptions for 48 countries and optimizing transit visa policies to enhance the convenience of inbound travel [11][24]. - The ongoing policy support is expected to significantly boost inbound tourism, with a focus on improving travel experiences and product offerings for foreign visitors [39][42]. 2. Market Potential: Growth Projections - The report estimates that there is over a 30% growth potential for inbound tourist flows in China, comparing the current contribution of inbound tourism to GDP (0.3%) with that of other major economies (1.2%) [12][13]. - The analysis indicates that the international passenger flow for Chinese airlines could see a CAGR of up to 15% due to the increasing demand from both outbound Chinese travelers and inbound foreign tourists [12][15]. 3. Airline Capacity and Passenger Flow Outlook - Chinese airlines are expected to capture a larger share of the inbound passenger flow, with significant increases in flight frequencies and new routes planned for 2025 [2][15]. - The report highlights that the recovery of international passenger traffic is primarily driven by the growth in inbound tourism, with foreign tourist entry numbers expected to increase significantly [12][39]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of positioning in the international market, recommending investments in leading airlines such as China Eastern Airlines, which has a strong base in Shanghai and is expected to benefit the most from international route expansions [2][15].