中国铀业：中核集团旗下天然铀矿产平台-20260212

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company is a subsidiary of China National Nuclear Corporation, focusing on the comprehensive utilization of natural uranium and radioactive associated mineral resources [1][12] - The company plans to raise 4.4 billion yuan through its IPO, with 2.2 billion yuan allocated for natural uranium capacity projects and 700 million yuan for the comprehensive utilization of radioactive associated mineral resources [22] - The company is expected to produce 2,659 tons of U3O8 (equivalent to 2,255 tons of metal) from overseas sources in 2024, with an estimated domestic production of 1,700 tons, totaling 3,955 tons, which represents 6.4% of the global production of approximately 61,615 tons in 2024 [1][12] Summary by Sections Natural Uranium Business - The company has a dominant position in domestic natural uranium production, holding 17 mining rights for domestic natural uranium or uranium-molybdenum mines [1][59] - The natural uranium business is divided into self-produced uranium product sales, purchased uranium product sales, and international uranium trade [1][38] - The demand for natural uranium is expected to grow steadily, with supply constraints leading to a long-term bullish price outlook [1][39] Comprehensive Utilization of Radioactive Associated Mineral Resources - The company focuses on the comprehensive utilization of monazite, uranium-molybdenum, and tantalum-niobium [2] - The comprehensive utilization of monazite produces rare earth chlorides and sodium phosphate/carbonate as by-products, while uranium-molybdenum and tantalum-niobium processing yield ammonium paratungstate and tantalum/niobium oxides, respectively [2][27] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.66 billion yuan, 3.49 billion yuan, and 4.87 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, representing growth rates of 14%, 110%, and 40% [3][4] - The estimated reasonable valuation for the company is between 108.3 and 120.9 yuan, indicating a premium of 17% to 31% over the current stock price of 92.59 yuan [4]