Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 105.00, indicating a potential upside of 17.1% from the current price of HKD 89.65 [1][9]. Core Insights - The company has successfully secured a strategic collaboration with Eli Lilly, marking its seventh major partnership and validating its antibody technology platform. This collaboration is expected to significantly enhance the company's overseas development of early-stage assets and increase global commercialization certainty [2][7]. - The company anticipates strong commercial growth driven by its oncology and comprehensive pipeline in 2026, with projected product revenue growth of approximately 45% year-on-year to RMB 12.505 billion in 2025. Key products are expected to continue supporting revenue growth [2][7]. - The report highlights the potential market space for key assets, estimating over USD 60 billion, with IBI363 alone contributing more than USD 40 billion. The company is also expected to introduce 8-10 new molecules annually from its innovation pipeline starting in 2026 [2][7]. Financial Forecast Changes - Revenue projections for 2025 have been revised down to RMB 12,505 million, a decrease of 37.1% from previous estimates. However, the 2026 revenue forecast has been increased by 26.7% to RMB 18,450 million, and the 2027 forecast has been raised by 18.6% to RMB 20,830 million [3]. - Gross profit for 2025 is now expected to be RMB 10,713 million, down 41.0% from prior estimates, while the gross profit margin is projected to be 85.7% [3]. - The net profit forecast for 2025 has been significantly reduced to RMB 1,055 million, reflecting an 87.9% decrease from previous estimates, but is expected to rise to RMB 3,502 million in 2026 and RMB 4,341 million in 2027 [3]. Stock Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 17.57%, with a 52-week high of HKD 107.00 and a low of HKD 35.50, indicating strong market interest [6][12]. Valuation Model - The discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation model estimates the equity value at RMB 161,238 million, translating to a per-share value of HKD 105.00, based on projected free cash flows and a WACC of 9.9% [8][15].
信达生物：近90亿美元交易再次验证抗体平台，2026年催化剂丰富，维持买入-20260212