Orient Securities·2026-02-12 00:25Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The report presents a contrarian view, suggesting that while there is market anticipation for a cyclical turning point due to recent price stabilization and reduced listings in core cities, further observation is necessary. Key cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen still face significant pressure, and the recent market improvements are attributed to specific factors such as seasonal demand shifts and policy expectations [2][3] - The government’s policy direction remains focused on risk prevention, safeguarding livelihoods, and reducing financialization in the real estate sector. Despite expectations for a major policy shift, the report indicates that the fundamental approach has not changed significantly [3] - The report highlights that the real estate sector has shown stronger performance than the broader market, driven by policy easing expectations and improvements in core city markets. It suggests that investors should actively participate in the sector, especially in the short term, while remaining cautious about long-term fundamentals [5] Market Performance - The A/H real estate sector has outperformed the market, with A-shares showing a weekly excess return of 1.34% against the CSI 300 index [11] - In the A-share market, stocks like JingTuo Development led gains with a weekly increase of 23.72% [17] - The Hong Kong property sector indices have also outperformed the Hang Seng Index, with notable gains in companies like Contemporary Land [15][18] Second-hand Housing Weekly Tracking - There has been a marginal improvement in listing prices in major cities, with Shanghai showing a rebound of 0.2% since January 18, 2026 [20] - The listing volume in first-tier cities has decreased significantly, with Shanghai experiencing a year-on-year decline of 20.08%, while Shenzhen saw an increase of 107.38% [24] - As the Spring Festival approaches, transaction volumes in major cities have turned negative, with declines of 26.54% in Guangzhou and 27.61% in Shenzhen [38] New Housing Weekly Tracking - The market is entering a "pre-holiday silence" period, with overall transaction volumes in the top ten cities declining by 14%, although Shanghai's new home transactions increased by 23% [56] - Total inventory has slightly decreased, with first-tier cities showing a more significant reduction. The average de-stocking period has lengthened seasonally, particularly in second-tier cities [58]