美国1月非农超预期，中国1月通胀修复

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macro - Strategy: 1) In January, inflation data indicated continuous price recovery. The logic of going long on inflation was initially strengthened, and IC was dominant. 2) Gold prices fluctuated and closed higher. The US January non - farm employment report was better than expected, but the sustainability of the employment market's recovery needed to be observed. Market expectations for interest rate cuts were postponed to July. 3) The US January non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, and short - term interest rate cut expectations were postponed again. US stocks were expected to maintain high - level fluctuations. 4) The rebound of PPI in January exceeded market expectations. The bond market was expected to remain strong in the short term, but the odds of chasing the rise were limited. Consider shorting when the upward momentum weakened [1][2][3][20]. - Commodities: 1) Steel prices were expected to continue the oscillating pattern before the Spring Festival. 2) Coking coal and coke prices were expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term. 3) The USDA February report had a neutral - to - bearish impact on cotton. ICE cotton prices were expected to maintain a weak oscillating pattern at a low level. Zheng cotton was expected to oscillate around the Spring Festival. 4) The palm oil market was expected to oscillate in the short term. Consider going long on dips if Malaysia's market remained weak. 5) The fundamentals of lithium carbonate were improving. After the Spring Festival, it was expected to see both supply and demand increase. Consider going long on dips. 6) For lead, consider mid - term long positions. 7) For zinc, adopt a wait - and - see approach before the Spring Festival and use double - buying for unilateral operations. 8) Crude oil prices were expected to remain oscillating and strong in the short term. 9) LPG prices were expected to be strongly oscillating. 10) For asphalt, adopt a cautious wait - and - see approach [23][26][31][34][38][40][45][48][50][51]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro - Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - In January, CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 1.4% year - on - year. The logic of going long on inflation was initially strengthened, and the CSI 500 index was dominant. It was recommended to continue holding the long - stock - index strategy [10][11]. 3.1.2 Macro - Strategy (Gold) - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the automatic conversion standard for silver hedging positions. Gold prices fluctuated and closed higher. The US January non - farm employment report was better than expected, and market expectations for interest rate cuts were postponed to July. It was recommended to reduce positions for the Spring Festival [13][14]. 3.1.3 Macro - Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US January non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, and short - term interest rate cut expectations were postponed again. US stocks were expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [17][18]. 3.1.4 Macro - Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - In January, CPI was lower than expected, and PPI was better than expected. The bond market was expected to remain strong in the short term, but the odds of chasing the rise were limited. Consider shorting when the upward momentum weakened [19][20][21]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Mexico launched an anti - dumping sunset review investigation on Chinese seamless steel pipes. Steel prices were expected to continue the oscillating pattern before the Spring Festival. It was recommended to adopt an oscillating mindset and pay attention to risks with light positions before the Spring Festival [22][23][24]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The import coking coal forward market was stable and slightly strong. The spot market was expected to remain stable before the Spring Festival, and the futures market was expected to oscillate [25][26][27]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The USDA February report had a neutral - to - bearish impact on cotton. ICE cotton prices were expected to maintain a weak oscillating pattern at a low level. Zheng cotton was expected to oscillate around the Spring Festival. It was recommended to hold light positions to avoid risks during the long holiday [28][30][31]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The palm oil market was expected to oscillate in the short term. Consider going long on dips if Malaysia's market remained weak. If planning to hold positions for the holiday, it was recommended to use options strategies [33][34][35]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The first part of the national standard for vehicle - use solid - state batteries was planned to be released in July 2026. The fundamentals of lithium carbonate were improving. After the Spring Festival, it was expected to see both supply and demand increase. Consider going long on dips [36][37][38]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - High - grade base metal mineralization was discovered in Queensland. Lead was currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. Consider mid - term long positions [39][40][41]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Some projects of Chihong Zinc & Germanium had progress. Zinc prices were mainly oscillating. Adopt a wait - and - see approach before the Spring Festival and use double - buying for unilateral operations [42][43][45]. 3.2.8 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC's January production decreased by 440,000 barrels per day. Crude oil prices were expected to remain oscillating and strong in the short term [47][48][49]. 3.2.9 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - EIA propane weekly data showed certain changes. LPG prices were expected to be strongly oscillating [50]. 3.2.10 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The domestic heavy - traffic asphalt capacity utilization rate decreased. The asphalt market was expected to be light before the Spring Festival. It was recommended to adopt a cautious wait - and - see approach [50][51][52].