格林大华期货早盘提示：国债-20260212

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core View of the Report - The overall inflation level in China moderately rebounded in January. The core CPI rose 0.3% month - on - month, and the PPI rose 0.4% month - on - month. The PMI indicators show that the economy in January was mild. The central bank continuously maintains liquidity in the capital market, which supports the long - position of treasury bonds. The Ministry of Finance will keep the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure at a necessary level in 2026, and the central bank governor said there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. Treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short term, and trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - On Wednesday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened higher across the board and fluctuated narrowly horizontally throughout the day. As of the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 rose 0.05%, the 10 - year T2603 rose 0.06%, the 5 - year TF2603 rose 0.05%, and the 2 - year TS2603 remained flat. The Wande All - A Index opened slightly lower on Wednesday, rose slightly during the day and then fell back, closing down 0.15% from the previous trading day, with a turnover of 2.00 trillion yuan, a slight decrease from 2.12 trillion yuan in the previous trading day [1][2]. Important Information - Open Market: On Wednesday, the central bank conducted 785 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 4000 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations. With 750 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net investment was 4035 billion yuan [1]. - Capital Market: On Wednesday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank capital market remained the same as the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.37%, and that of DR007 was 1.54%, down from 1.56% in the previous trading day [1]. - Cash Bond Market: On Wednesday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year treasury bonds rose 0.28 BP to 1.36%, the 5 - year yield fell 0.52 BP to 1.54%, the 10 - year yield fell 1.00 BP to 1.80%, and the 30 - year yield fell 0.15 BP to 2.25% [1]. - Economic Data: In January 2026, the national consumer price (CPI) rose 0.2% year - on - year (expected 0.4%, previous value 0.8%), and the CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month (previous value 0.2%). The national industrial producer price (PPI) fell 1.4% year - on - year (market expected - 1.45%, previous value - 1.9%), and the PPI rose 0.4% month - on - month, with the increase expanding by 0.2 percentage points compared with the previous month [1]. - Policy: On February 11, the State Council conducted the 18th special study on the theme of deepening and expanding "Artificial Intelligence +" and empowering all industries in an all - round way. Premier Li emphasized promoting AI technological innovation, industrial development, and application. The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council held a deployment meeting on the "AI +" special action for central enterprises, proposing that central enterprises should strengthen independent innovation and scene cultivation [1]. - Overseas Data: The US unemployment rate in January was 4.3%, the lowest since August 2025 (expected 4.4%, previous value 4.4%). The number of non - farm payrolls increased by 130,000 (expected 65,000, previous value 50,000). After the release of better - than - expected employment data, traders reduced their bets on the Fed's interest rate cuts [2]. Market Logic - The mild economic situation in January and the central bank's maintenance of liquidity support the long - position of treasury bonds. The Ministry of Finance's fiscal policy and the central bank governor's statement on the room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts also have an impact on the market. The Wande All - A Index and treasury bond futures both fluctuated narrowly horizontally, and treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short term [1][2]. Trading Strategy - Trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [2].