格林大华期货早盘提示：贵金属-20260212

1. Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View - The gold and silver markets have not formed a new trend direction yet. The better - than - expected January employment data in the US has led traders to reduce their bets on the Fed's interest rate cuts, and the Iran geopolitical risk continues to ferment. During the Spring Festival holiday, the margin of gold and silver futures contracts will be adjusted [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - COMEX gold futures rose 1.53% to $5107.80 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 4.60% to $84.08 per ounce. The Shanghai gold main contract closed up 0.44% at 1131 yuan per gram, and the Shanghai silver main contract closed up 2.27% at 20965 yuan per kilogram [1]. 3.2 Important Information - As of February 11, the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust increased by 19.73 tons from the previous day, with the current holdings at 16236.18 tons [1]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March is 5.9%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 94.1%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by April is 20.5%, the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 78.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point interest rate cut is 1%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by June is 48.1% [1]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced that for silver contracts, starting from the last trading day of February 2026, for non - futures company members, overseas special non - brokerage participants, or customers who have not obtained the hedging trading position limit for the approaching delivery month, the approaching - delivery - month long and short hedging trading position limits automatically converted from the general - month hedging trading position limits will be temporarily adjusted to 0 lots [1]. - The US unemployment rate in January was 4.3%, the lowest since August 2025, better than the forecast of 4.4% and the previous value of 4.4%. The number of non - farm payrolls in the US increased by 130,000 in January, exceeding the forecast of 65,000 and the previous value of 50,000. After the release of the better - than - expected January employment data, traders reduced their bets on the Fed's interest rate cuts [1]. - According to the Wall Street Journal, three US officials revealed that as the US military prepares for a potential strike against Iran, the Pentagon has notified a second aircraft carrier strike group to prepare for deployment to the Middle East [1]. 3.3 Market Logic - The better - than - expected January employment data in the US has led traders to reduce their bets on the Fed's interest rate cuts. On February 11, the US dollar index rose 0.06% to 96.26. The Iran geopolitical risk continues to ferment, and COMEX gold rose slightly while COMEX silver had a relatively large increase on February 11 [1][2]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, investors should pay attention to controlling positions and preventing risks [2].