格林大华期货早盘提示：全球经济-20260212

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The global economy has passed its peak in late 2025 and is now on a downward trajectory due to consecutive wrong policies in the US [3] - The US is at the verge of a "capital war" and civil war, and investors should be aware of capital control risks [2] - There may be a trend of "fleeing US assets" from July to November 2026 due to the uncertainty of the Fed [2] - The rotation of funds from financial assets to hard assets like commodities is forming, with metals being significantly affected [1] - The development of AI is bringing revolutionary changes to programming and various industries [1] - The US retail sales in December 2026 had an unexpected zero - growth, and consumer K - type differentiation is intensifying [1][2] - The US is returning to the Monroe Doctrine, which will have a profound impact on major asset classes [3] - The Fed's potential policy shift (Wash's rate - cut + balance - sheet reduction combination) will cause a strong liquidity contraction expectation for equity assets [3] - The Nasdaq futures' rebound after breaking through the half - year line is a technical pullback, and a new round of large - scale technology stock selling may be triggered [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Global Economic Logic - Hedge funds have been net - selling US stocks for four consecutive weeks, with the strongest selling since early April last year [2] - The US 12 - month retail sales had an unexpected zero - growth, with weak and uneven holiday consumption momentum, and 8 out of 13 retail categories declined [1][2] - Bridgewater's founder Dalio warns of a "capital war" and civil war in the US, and investors should beware of capital control risks [2] - The expected policy of Fed nominee Wash has a strong negative impact on global equity and commodity assets [2] - The US's actions in seizing Venezuelan oil and attempting to buy Greenland bring great uncertainty to the global political order and economy [2] - The Fed's uncertainty may lead to a "fleeing US assets" trend from July to November 2026 [2] - The decline in Las Vegas gambling revenue is similar to the early warning signals before the 2008 financial crisis [2] - The US is adjusting its economic relationship with China and aiming to revive its economic autonomy [2] - The Fed's Beige Book shows an intensified K - type differentiation among consumers, with high - income consumers maintaining spending while middle - and low - income families are tightening their belts [2] - Funds are flowing from technology stocks to defensive sectors, and investors should be wary of subsequent sharp fluctuations [2] Important Information - Seedance2.0 represents a significant leap for Chinese tech companies in the global AI competition, creating a self - consistent parallel physical law in the digital space [1] - Global funds are shifting from financial assets to hard assets, and metals are significantly affected by the inflow of funds [1] - Programming is undergoing a revolution from "writing code" to "commanding intelligent agent legions", with AI capable of autonomous system development and reducing development thresholds [1] - The FCC has approved Amazon's application to deploy 4500 satellites, expanding its satellite constellation to about 7700 to compete with SpaceX [1] - Altruist launched an AI tool for tax strategies, and insurance brokerage stocks dropped significantly after a similar tool launch [1] - The White House wants AI giants to follow an agreement to regulate data center expansion and ensure related issues are addressed [1] - The proportion of overdue US household debt in Q4 last year rose to 4.8%, the highest since 2017, mainly driven by mortgage loan defaults of low - income and young borrowers [1]