Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the medium to long term, the policy's supportive attitude towards the capital market remains unchanged. For the stock index, the strategy is to buy on dips. For the bond market, it is expected to show a strong and volatile trend. For precious metals, they may enter a phased correction in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see. For various metals, their prices are expected to fluctuate. For energy and chemical products, different strategies such as taking profits on rallies, waiting and seeing, and short - selling on highs are recommended according to different situations. For agricultural products, different investment suggestions are given based on the supply - demand situation of each variety [4][6][9]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Financial Category Stock Index - Market Information: The Chinese government promotes AI innovation and development, and the US has positive employment data and fiscal deficit information. Elon Musk plans to build an AI satellite factory on the moon, and Indonesia plans to reduce nickel ore production quotas [2]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The divergence in US monetary policy expectations suppresses risk appetite in the capital market. Domestically, liquidity tightens seasonally before the Spring Festival. In the medium to long term, the strategy is to buy on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - Market Information: Bond prices show small changes. The CPI in January 2026 is lower than expected, and the PPI improves. The Ministry of Finance issues RMB 14 billion in treasury bonds in Hong Kong, and the central bank conducts reverse repurchase operations with a net investment of RMB 40.35 billion [5]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The central bank emphasizes the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies, and the capital market is expected to remain loose. The economic recovery foundation is not solid, and the bond market is expected to be strong and volatile [6]. Precious Metals - Market Information: Gold and silver prices rise. The US non - farm payrolls data is better than expected, and the unemployment rate drops. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut cools down, and the prices of gold and silver drop at night [7][8]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The US employment data is strong, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut cools down. Precious metals may enter a phased correction. It is advisable to wait and see, with the reference range for Shanghai gold at 1100 - 1200 yuan/g and for Shanghai silver at 20000 - 21800 yuan/kg [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals Category Copper - Market Information: The US employment data is good, and copper prices rise. LME copper inventory increases, and the domestic spot is at a discount. The import of refined copper is at a loss, and the spread between refined and scrap copper widens [11]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The US and China plan to increase copper reserves. The US economic data is volatile, and the manufacturing industry is strong. The supply of copper ore is tight, and the supply of refined copper is high. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate, with the reference range for Shanghai copper at 101000 - 104000 yuan/ton and for LME copper at 13100 - 13400 US dollars/ton [12]. Aluminum - Market Information: The situation in the Middle East affects oil prices, and aluminum prices rise. Domestic aluminum inventories accumulate, and LME aluminum inventories decrease [13]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Domestic demand is weak in the off - season, but LME aluminum inventories are low, and the price of US aluminum is at a premium. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate, with the reference range for Shanghai aluminum at 23300 - 23800 yuan/ton and for LME aluminum at 3090 - 3160 US dollars/ton [14]. Zinc - Market Information: Zinc prices rise. The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots starts to accumulate, and the downstream enterprise operation is average [15][16]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The inventory of zinc ore slows down, and the TC of zinc concentrate stabilizes. The domestic zinc industry is weak, but the strong US PMI may drive zinc prices up [17]. Lead - Market Information: Lead prices rise. The inventory of lead ore is higher than in previous years, and the processing fee of lead concentrate is low. The inventory of waste batteries rises, and the social inventory of lead ingots accumulates [18]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The domestic lead industry is weak. Whether lead prices can stabilize depends on the restocking willingness of downstream enterprises after the Spring Festival [18]. Nickel - Market Information: Nickel prices rise significantly. The spot premium is stable, and the price of nickel ore is stable. The price of nickel iron rises [19]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Precious metals and risk assets rebound, but nickel faces fundamental pressure. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely, with the reference range for Shanghai nickel at 120,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton and for LME nickel at 16,000 - 18,000 US dollars/ton [20]. Tin - Market Information: Tin prices rise. The production of refined tin in Yunnan is stable, and that in Jiangxi is low. The demand for downstream products is weak [21]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Precious metals stabilize, and tin prices may rebound. In the short term, tin prices are expected to fluctuate widely due to the marginal relaxation of supply and demand and the increase in inventory. It is advisable to wait and see, with the reference range for domestic tin at 350,000 - 410,000 yuan/ton and for overseas tin at 46,000 - 50,000 US dollars/ton [21]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: The price of lithium carbonate rises. The production and sales of power and energy - storage batteries in January increase year - on - year [22]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The demand for lithium is strong, and the supply is affected. The game between upstream hoarding and downstream restocking will affect lithium prices. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 138,000 - 156,000 yuan/ton [22]. Alumina - Market Information: The price of alumina rises slightly. The domestic spot is at a discount, and the overseas import is at a loss. The inventory of futures increases [23]. - Strategy Viewpoint: A mine in Guinea is on strike. The over - capacity situation of alumina is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulates. It is advisable to wait and see, with the reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 at 2750 - 3000 yuan/ton [24][25]. Stainless Steel - Market Information: Stainless steel prices rise. The supply of raw materials recovers, and the social inventory increases [26]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The supply pressure is controllable, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The stainless steel fundamentals are supported, and the strategy is to buy on dips, with the reference range for the main contract at 13500 - 14500 yuan/ton [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: The price of cast aluminum alloy rebounds slightly. The inventory decreases [28]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The cost of cast aluminum alloy rises. Although the demand is average, the price is supported in the short term due to supply - side disturbances and seasonal tightness of raw materials [29]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - Market Information: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil show small changes. The inventory of rebar accumulates, and the demand for hot - rolled coil is relatively stable [31]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The carbon - emission trading policy may increase the cost of the steel industry. The black series is in a bottom - game stage, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to inventory inflection points and demand recovery [32]. Iron Ore - Market Information: Iron ore prices rise slightly. The overseas shipment volume decreases, and the port inventory accumulates [33]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The overseas shipment enters the off - season, and the inventory pressure is high. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to overseas shipments and domestic iron - making production [34]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market Information: The prices of coking coal and coke rise slightly. The spot is at a premium to the futures [36][37]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Overseas coal - related disturbances boost sentiment, but the short - term upward drive is weak. The supply is expected to increase after the Spring Festival, and the price may correct. Coking coal may rise smoothly from June to October [39][40][42]. Glass and Soda Ash - Market Information: Glass prices rise slightly, and the inventory increases. Soda ash prices rise slightly, and the inventory increases [43][45]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The demand for glass and soda ash is weak. Glass is expected to fluctuate, with the reference range at 1030 - 1120 yuan/ton. Soda ash is expected to be weak, with the reference range at 1140 - 1230 yuan/ton [44][46]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market Information: Manganese silicon prices rise slightly, and ferrosilicon prices fall slightly. The spot is at a premium to the futures [47]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The short - term market sentiment is affected by precious metals. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is loose, and that of ferrosilicon is balanced. Attention should be paid to the cost of manganese ore and the supply contraction of ferrosilicon [48][50]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Market Information: Industrial silicon prices fall slightly, and polysilicon prices rise slightly. The supply of industrial silicon may contract, and the demand for polysilicon decreases [51][53]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Industrial silicon is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. Polysilicon's supply decreases, and the inventory may decrease slightly. The futures are expected to fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see [52][54][56]. Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - Market Information: Rubber prices follow the market to rebound. The opening rate of tire enterprises decreases, and the inventory accumulates [58][59]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Before the Spring Festival, it is advisable to reduce risks. It is recommended to trade short - term on the disk, set stop - losses, and use hedging strategies [61]. Crude Oil - Market Information: Crude oil and refined oil prices rise [62]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The oil price has risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. It is advisable to take profits on rallies and focus on medium - term layout [63][64]. Methanol - Market Information: The spot and futures prices of methanol change slightly [65]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Methanol has priced in many negative factors. It is advisable to stop losses on short positions and wait and see in the short term [66]. Urea - Market Information: The spot and futures prices of urea change slightly [67]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The import window is open, and the fundamentals of urea are expected to be negative. It is advisable to short on highs [68]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: The price of pure benzene rises, and the price of styrene is mixed. The inventory of styrene accumulates, and the demand is in the off - season [69]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The non - integrated profit of styrene is high, and the supply is abundant. It is advisable to gradually take profits [70]. PVC - Market Information: PVC prices rise. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The inventory accumulates [71]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The fundamentals of PVC are poor, with strong supply and weak demand. Short - term factors support the price, and attention should be paid to changes in production capacity and operation [72]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: Ethylene glycol prices rise. The supply load is high, and the demand is in the off - season. The inventory accumulates [73]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The supply - demand pattern needs to be improved by reducing production. The valuation is neutral to low, and there is a risk of rebound [74]. PTA - Market Information: PTA prices rise. The supply is in high - maintenance, and the demand decreases. The inventory accumulates [75]. - Strategy Viewpoint: PTA enters the inventory - accumulation stage during the Spring Festival. The processing fee is expected to be stable, and there is an opportunity to buy on dips in the medium term [76]. p - Xylene - Market Information: p - Xylene prices rise. The load is high, and the downstream PTA has many maintenance plans. The inventory accumulates [77]. - Strategy Viewpoint: p - Xylene is expected to accumulate inventory before the maintenance season. The valuation is expected to rise after the Spring Festival, and there is an opportunity to buy on dips following the crude oil price [78]. Polyethylene (PE) - Market Information: The futures price of PE rises, and the spot price falls. The supply is stable, and the demand is in the off - season [79]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The crude oil price may bottom out. The PE valuation has room to decline, and the inventory pressure is relieved. The demand is weak in the off - season [80]. Polypropylene (PP) - Market Information: The futures price of PP rises, and the spot price is stable. The supply pressure is relieved, and the demand is in the off - season [81]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The supply - demand situation is weak, and the inventory pressure is high. The price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year. It is advisable to buy on dips for the PP5 - 9 spread [82]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - Market Information: Pig prices show mixed trends. Some regions have more slaughter, and some regions have less [84]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The short - term supply is large, and it is advisable to short on rebounds. The long - term demand may recover, and attention should be paid to the support at the lower level [85]. Eggs - Market Information: Egg prices are mostly stable, and some regions decline. The supply is stable, and the demand weakens [86]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The market is in the inventory - accumulation stage, and the spot price is likely to fall. It is advisable to short the near - month contract. The long - term production capacity reduction needs to be observed [87]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market Information: The domestic price of soybean meal is stable, and the price of rapeseed meal rises. The global soybean supply and demand are balanced, and the US soybean export decreases [88][89]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The increase in US soybean procurement may increase the supply pressure and import cost. The protein meal price is expected to fluctuate [90]. Oils and Fats - Market Information: The prices of domestic oils and fats fall. The domestic inventory of oils and fats increases, and the production and export of Malaysian palm oil change [91][92]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The consumption of oils and fats increases more than the production. It is advisable to wait for a callback and then go long [93]. Sugar - Market Information: The domestic sugar price is stable. The domestic and foreign sugar production and sales data change [94][95]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The international sugar price may rebound after the northern hemisphere harvest. The domestic sugar price has limited downward space, and it is advisable to wait and see [96]. Cotton - Market Information: The domestic cotton price rises. The domestic and foreign cotton supply and demand data are neutral [97][98]. - Strategy Viewpoint: After the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the downstream opening rate and the new cotton target price policy. It is advisable to go long at the lower end of the shock range [99].
宏观金融类：文字早评2026/02/12星期四-20260212
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-02-12 01:07