2026-02-12：五矿期货农产品早报-20260212

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - For sugar, after the northern hemisphere finishes squeezing in February and the negative impact of increased production is mostly realized, international sugar prices may rebound. Currently, the supply of imported sugar in China is gradually decreasing, and with sugar prices at a low level, the short - term downward space may be limited. It is advisable to wait and see for now [2][3][4]. - For cotton, the February USDA monthly supply - demand report is neutral. After the Spring Festival, focus on the downstream startup rate and the new cotton target price policy that may be announced in March or April. Try to go long at the lower edge of the oscillation range [6][9][10]. - For protein meal, the expectation of China increasing soybean purchases from the US has pushed up the CBOT soybean price. For China, on one hand, the long - term supply pressure increases, and on the other hand, the import cost rises. It is expected that the short - term protein meal price will continue to oscillate [12][13][14]. - For oils, driven by biodiesel policies in various countries, the increase in consumption of oils this year is greater than the production growth rate. Oils prices are bullish in the medium term. It is recommended to wait for a pullback to go long [16][19][20]. - For eggs, the market is in the inventory accumulation period around the Spring Festival. With weak demand and high inventory, the spot price is likely to fall. The near - month contracts may still have a premium to be squeezed out, so maintain a high - shorting思路. The far - end contracts will re - trade the capacity reduction logic after the spot price turns, but the implementation path is still uncertain [22][23]. - For pigs, the basic supply is large and the live - animal inventory is accumulating. The spot and near - term expectations are pessimistic. The near - term may still be under pressure, so maintain a strategy of selling on rallies. The long - term may have support after following the decline, considering factors such as the high fat - to - standard price difference, seasonal support, and the expectation of consumption recovery [25][26]. 3. Summary by Commodity Sugar Domestic - On Wednesday, the quotation of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. In January 2026, China produced 263,000 tons of sugar. The cumulative sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season was 3.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 120,000 tons. As of the end of January, the national cumulative sugar production was 6.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 600,000 tons. In January, the single - month sugar sales were 1.13 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 100,000 tons. The cumulative sales - to - production ratio was 39.1%, a year - on - year decrease of 10.75 percentage points. The industrial inventory was 4.19 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 430,000 tons. In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons. The cumulative sugar imports in 2025 were 4.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 570,000 tons. As of the end of December in the 2025/26 crushing season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 310,000 tons. In December, China imported a total of 69,700 tons of syrup and premixed powder, and the cumulative imports in 2025 were 1.1888 million tons [2]. Foreign - According to UNICA data, as of the first half of January in the 2025/26 crushing season, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 40.23 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 345,000 tons. According to data released by Brazilian shipping agency Williams, as of the week of February 4, the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports was 1.56 million tons, a decrease of 220,000 tons from the previous week. As of the end of January 2026 in the 2025/26 crushing season, India's cumulative sugar production was 19.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.97 million tons; Thailand's cumulative sugar production was 480,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 46,000 tons [3]. Cotton Domestic - On Wednesday, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was reported at 16,029 yuan/ton, an increase of 41 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. As of February 6, the spinning mill startup rate was 60.5%, a decrease of 3.7 percentage points from the previous week; the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.52 million tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons from the previous week. In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons; the cumulative cotton imports in the 2025/26 season were 560,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 70,000 tons. In December 2025, China imported 170,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 20,000 tons; the cumulative cotton yarn imports in the 2025/26 season were 720,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 110,000 tons [6]. Foreign - From January 22 to January 29, the US current - year cotton export sales were 51,800 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 1.7722 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 194,900 tons; among them, the export to China in that week was 8800 tons, and the cumulative export to China was 97,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 66,000 tons. The February USDA monthly supply - demand report was neutral. The February forecast for the 2025/26 global cotton production was 26.1 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons from the January forecast and an increase of 300,000 tons from the previous year. The increase in production forecast came from China, with a February forecast of 7.62 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons from the January forecast. The global consumption forecast was 25.85 million tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons from the January forecast and a decrease of 50,000 tons from the previous year. The global ending inventory forecast was 16.35 million tons, an increase of 130,000 tons from the January forecast and an increase of 290,000 tons from the previous year. The global inventory - to - consumption ratio forecast was 62.27%, an increase of 0.63 percentage points from the January forecast and an increase of 1.25 percentage points from the previous year. The US export volume forecast was reduced by 40,000 tons to 2.61 million tons compared with the January forecast, while the forecasts for China, Brazil, and India changed little [6][9]. Protein Meal Domestic - On Wednesday, the spot price of soybean meal in Dongguan was reported at 3060 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Huangpu was reported at 2480 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. As of February 6, the arrival volume of domestic sample soybeans was 1.56 million tons, a decrease of 260,000 tons from the previous week; the port inventory of sample soybeans was 5.91 million tons, a decrease of 800,000 tons from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 1.6 million tons; the inventory of soybean meal in sample oil mills was 900,000 tons, an increase of 40,000 tons from the previous week and a year - on - year increase of 516,000 tons [12]. Foreign - The February USDA monthly supply - demand report was neutral. The February forecast for global soybean production was 428 million tons, an increase of 2.5 million tons from the January forecast and an increase of 1 million tons from the previous year; the global soybean consumption forecast was 424 million tons, an increase of 1.6 million tons from the January forecast and an increase of 11.24 million tons from the previous year; the global soybean ending inventory forecast was 125 million tons, an increase of 1.11 million tons from the January forecast and an increase of 2.12 million tons from the previous year; the global soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio forecast was 29.55%, an increase of 0.15 percentage points from the January forecast and a decrease of 0.29 percentage points from the previous year. The production forecasts for the US and Argentina remained unchanged, while the production forecast for Brazil was increased by 2 million tons to 180 million tons compared with January. The US soybean export volume and China's soybean import volume forecasts remained unchanged. From January 22 to January 29, the US exported 440,000 tons of soybeans, and the current - year cumulative export of soybeans was 34.29 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.27 million tons; among them, the export of soybeans to China in that week was 230,000 tons, and the current - year cumulative export of soybeans to China was 9.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.33 million tons [13]. Oils Domestic - On Wednesday, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was reported at 8540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was reported at 8950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was reported at 9920 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. As of February 6, the inventory of the three major oils in domestic sample data was 1.92 million tons, an increase of 30,000 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 30,000 tons compared with the same period last year. Among them, the sample palm oil inventory was 726,700 tons, an increase of 25,300 tons from the previous week and an increase of 264,900 tons compared with the same period last year; the sample soybean oil inventory was 960,000 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 73,400 tons compared with the same period last year; the sample rapeseed oil inventory was 240,000 tons, a decrease of 6000 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 369,800 tons compared with the same period last year [16]. Foreign - According to data released by MPOB, Malaysia's palm oil production in January was 1.58 million tons, a decrease of 250,000 tons from the previous month and an increase of 340,000 tons compared with the same period last year; the export volume in January was 1.48 million tons, an increase of 160,000 tons from the previous month and an increase of 320,000 tons compared with the same period last year; the inventory in January was 2.82 million tons, a decrease of 230,000 tons from the previous month and an increase of 1.24 million tons compared with the same period last year. According to data from ITS, from February 1 to 10, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil export volume was 451,000 tons, a 10.5% decrease compared with the same period in January; according to AmSpec's data, the palm oil export volume from February 1 - 10 was 399,000 tons, a 14.2% decrease compared with the same period in January. According to Indonesian customs data, Indonesia exported 2.79 million tons of palm oil in January, an increase of 1.36 million tons from the previous month and an increase of 900,000 tons year - on - year. According to USDA data, the February forecast for Malaysia's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season was 20.2 million tons, an increase of 500,000 tons from the January forecast; the production forecast for Indonesia remained unchanged at 46.7 million tons. The US soybean oil consumption forecast remained unchanged, and the Canadian rapeseed production forecast remained unchanged [17][19]. Eggs - Yesterday, the egg prices in most parts of the country were stable, while a few areas saw a decline. The average price in the main production areas dropped 0.04 yuan to 3.29 yuan/jin. The price in Xinji dropped 0.06 yuan to 2.67 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao dropped 0.06 yuan to 2.78 yuan/jin. The price in Dongguan remained stable at 3.15 yuan/jin. The supply of goods was stable. As the Spring Festival approached, the market demand continued to weaken, and the market trading activity decreased. It is expected that most egg prices in the country may stop reporting today, and some prices may remain stable or decline [22]. Pigs - Yesterday, the domestic pig prices mainly declined, while some areas remained stable or had a small increase. The average price in Henan increased 0.12 yuan to 11.94 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan remained unchanged at 10.8 yuan/kg. In some areas, the pre - festival clearance of pigs by farmers was still ongoing, with active slaughter, which may lead to a decline in pig prices. In some areas, the slaughter volume of farmers was gradually decreasing, which was beneficial to pig prices and may lead to an increase. It is expected that pig prices may show a mixed trend of increase, decrease, and stability today [25].