铜：矿端供应仍然偏紧

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Since the second half of 2025, the global copper price has risen significantly, and the continuous tight supply of copper mines is an important factor driving the upward trend of copper prices. The current global copper mine supply remains tight, and the growth expectation for 2026 is weak, constrained by multiple structural factors. In an environment with sufficient funds in the financial market, the impact of mine - end disturbances is likely to be magnified, and copper prices still have strong support [1][23] Summary by Related Catalogs 2025 - 2026 Copper Mine Production - In Q4 2025, the sample mines had a year - on - year production reduction of about 290,000 tons, a decrease of 6.7%. The Grasberg mine under Freeport, the Kamoa - Kakula mine, Escondida, and some mines under Antofagasta all had significant production declines [4] - In 2025, the global sample mines produced about 16.65 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 270,000 tons (- 1.6%). It is expected that the sample mines will produce about 16.86 million tons in 2026, with an increase of about 210,000 tons, but the growth rate is lower than previously expected [5] 2025 Copper Mine Cost - In 2025, the 90th - percentile C1 cash cost of overseas sample copper mines was about $5,543 per ton, a decrease of 2.63% compared to 2024. The reasons include high by - product prices, stable energy prices, and the recovery of some mine production [8] Ore Grade - The average ore grade of overseas sample copper mines decreased from about 0.82% in 2021 to about 0.68% in 2025, showing a significant structural decline [13] Capital Expenditure - Since 2015, the capital expenditure of global sample copper mines has shown a fluctuating upward trend, but the growth rate has slowed down in recent years. The actual capital investment scale may be even lower after adjusting for inflation [16] - Maintenance capital expenditure accounts for most of the total capital expenditure. The increase in capital expenditure is mainly for the maintenance of existing development projects. The increase in capital expenditure for greenfield and brownfield project expansions is still moderate [20]