格林期货早盘提示：甲醇-20260212

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for methanol in the energy and chemical sector is "oscillating with a bullish bias" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - With the Middle - East geopolitical situation prone to fluctuations, crude oil prices are trending strongly. This week, methanol inventories at ports increased slightly, while those in the inland areas decreased. As downstream提货 weakens during the Spring Festival holiday, the fundamentals lack continuous drivers, so the short - term methanol price will oscillate slightly stronger. The reference range for the 05 contract is 2200 - 2300 [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Market Review - On Wednesday night, the futures price of the main contract 2605 rose 2 yuan to 2243 yuan/ton, and the spot price of methanol in the mainstream East - China region rose 5 yuan to 2215 yuan/ton. In terms of positions, long positions increased by 1453 to 477,000, and short positions decreased by 21,332 to 583,000 [1] Important Information - Supply: The domestic methanol operating rate is 92.2%, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%. The overseas methanol operating rate is 46.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.3% [1] - Inventory: The total inventory of methanol at Chinese ports is 1432,200 tons, an increase of 21,200 tons from the previous data. Among them, inventory in East - China increased by 36,600 tons, and that in South - China decreased by 15,400 tons. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 340,300 tons, a decrease of 28,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 7.61% [1] - Demand: The signing volume of northwest methanol enterprises is 56,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9700 tons. The pending orders of sample enterprises are 315,000 tons, an increase of 28,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 9.75%. The olefin operating rate is 83.8%, a month - on - month increase of 1.7%; the methyl chloride operating rate is 77.4%, a month - on - month increase of 1.4%; the acetic acid operating rate is 81.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%; the formaldehyde operating rate is 30%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.2%; the MBTE operating rate is 68.0%, unchanged from the previous period [1] - Import Data: In December 2025, China's methanol import volume was 1,734,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.56%, and the average import price was 240.61 dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 7.23%. Among them, the largest import volume was from Saudi Arabia, which was 604,400 tons, with an average import price of 238.74 dollars/ton. From January to December 2025, China's cumulative methanol import volume was 14,405,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.75% [1] - Crude Oil Market: Concerns about potential supply risks due to unstable geopolitical situations led to an increase in international oil prices, but the growth of US commercial crude oil inventories limited the increase. The NYMEX crude oil futures 03 contract rose 0.67 dollars/barrel to 64.63 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 1.05%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 04 contract rose 0.60 dollars/barrel to 69.40 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 0.87%. China's INE crude oil futures 2604 contract rose 3.4 to 475.9 yuan/barrel, and rose 3.9 to 479.8 yuan/barrel at night [1] Market Logic - The Middle - East geopolitical situation may fluctuate, and crude oil prices are trending strongly. This week, methanol inventories at ports increased slightly, while those in the inland areas decreased. As downstream提货 weakens during the Spring Festival holiday, the fundamentals lack continuous drivers, so the short - term methanol price will oscillate slightly stronger. The reference range for the 05 contract is 2200 - 2300 [1] Trading Strategy - As the holiday approaches, hold light positions or no positions [1]