宁证期货今日早评-20260212

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market may further wait for the clarity of the Fed's monetary policy, and silver may passively fluctuate following gold, with a mid - term high - level shock [1]. - The domestic soda ash market is stable, with supply exceeding demand and new capacity pressure. It is expected to maintain a weak shock in the short term [1]. - The fundamentals of coking coal are expected to remain healthy, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate widely due to capital sentiment [3]. - The domestic steel market is in holiday mode, with downstream demand stagnant. Steel prices are expected to be stable before the festival and may first decline and then rise after the festival [3]. - Iron ore prices are under pressure, but due to the upcoming Two Sessions, they are expected to fluctuate in the short term [4]. - The downward space of hog prices is limited, and the far - month contracts have bottomed out. It is recommended to go long on far - month contracts [4]. - Palm oil prices are expected to maintain a high - level shock, and it is recommended to wait and see before the festival [5]. - The price of soybean meal has a short - term bottom support and is expected to stabilize and rebound [6]. - Long - term treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate upward, but the shock attribute is still strong [6]. - Crude oil is driven by geopolitics but has supply pressure. It is recommended to focus on risk control during the Spring Festival [7]. - Gold is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the mid - term, affected by geopolitical disturbances [8]. - Copper prices are expected to maintain a shock pattern in the short term due to the complex supply situation and weak demand [8]. - Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a shock pattern before the festival and wait for the recovery of demand after the festival [10]. - Methanol prices are expected to be weak in the short - term shock [10]. - Plastic prices are expected to be under pressure and weak in the short term [11]. - PTA prices are expected to be weak in the shock [11]. - Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate [12]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Precious Metals - Silver: The non - farm data in the US significantly exceeded expectations, but the fluctuation of precious metals was limited. Silver may follow gold, and it is expected to be in a high - level shock in the mid - term [1]. - Gold: Geopolitical disturbances continue, and gold is expected to be in a high - level shock in the mid - term [8]. Chemicals - Soda Ash: The price is stable, with supply exceeding demand and new capacity pressure. It is expected to be weak in the short - term shock [1]. - Methanol: The domestic methanol starts at a high level, with a slight increase in port inventory. It is expected to be weak in the short - term shock [10]. - Palm Oil: The export situation in February is not optimistic, and the price is expected to maintain a high - level shock. It is recommended to wait and see before the festival [5]. - Soybean Meal: The supply is loose, but the contract volume for delivery is tightening, providing short - term price support. It is expected to stabilize and rebound [6]. Energy - Crude Oil: Geopolitical factors drive the market, but there is supply pressure. It is recommended to focus on risk control during the Spring Festival [7]. Metals - Coking Coal: The production will decline during the holiday, and the demand is supported. The fundamentals are expected to be healthy, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [3]. - Iron Ore: The inventory pressure increases, and the supply is affected by weather. The price is under pressure but may fluctuate due to the upcoming Two Sessions [4]. - Copper: The supply situation is complex, and the demand is weak. It is expected to maintain a shock pattern in the short term [8]. - Aluminum: Overseas supply has a risk of interruption, and domestic supply is stable. The demand is weak in the short term, and it is expected to maintain a shock pattern before the festival [10]. Building Materials - Rebar: The domestic steel market is in holiday mode, with downstream demand stagnant. The price is expected to be stable before the festival and may first decline and then rise after the festival [3]. Agricultural Products - Hog: The price is weak, but there are signs of stopping the decline. The downward space is limited, and it is recommended to go long on far - month contracts [4]. - Rubber: The overseas raw material price is rising, but the demand is weak during the holiday. The price is expected to fluctuate [12]. Plastics - Plastic: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to be under pressure and weak in the short term [11]. Textiles - PTA: The polyester inventory is low, but the demand is weak during the holiday. It is expected to be weak in the shock [11].