中泰期货晨会纪要-20260212

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Spring Festival market may continue, and attention should be paid to the performance of the style - shifting weighted index. The bond market sentiment has improved, and the rebound trend may continue. [9][10] - For various commodities, different trends and investment suggestions are given based on their fundamentals, market supply - demand, and macro - factors. For example, black commodities are expected to oscillate in the short - term, and some positions of high - level short orders in iron ore can be partially closed for profit. [12] - The performance of different sectors such as macro - finance, black, non - ferrous, agricultural products, and energy - chemical industries is analyzed comprehensively, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Trend Based on Fundamental and Quantitative Indicators - Fundamental Analysis: Commodities are classified as trend空头 (red dates), 震荡偏空 (carbonate lithium), 震荡 (thirty - year bonds, etc.), 震荡偏多 (fuel oil, etc.) based on fundamental factors. [2] - Quantitative Analysis: Commodities are classified as 偏空 (plastic, etc.), 震荡 (rapeseed oil, etc.), 偏多 (corn, etc.) based on quantitative indicators. [4] 3.2 Macro Information - The State Council carried out the 18th special study on "AI +" to promote AI innovation, industry development, and application. China's CPI and PPI data in January were released, with CPI rising and PPI showing a narrowing decline. The US January non - farm payrolls data was strong, affecting market expectations of the Fed's interest - rate cuts. [6] - OPEC maintained its forecast of global oil supply and demand, and OPEC + production decreased in January. [7] 3.3 Stock Index Futures - The launch tests of the Long March 10 rocket and the Mengzhou manned spacecraft were successful. Relevant policies were issued to regulate the power market and prevent monopolistic behavior. ByteDance may be developing an AI chip. [8] 3.4 Treasury Bond Futures - Bond market sentiment improved, and the rebound trend may continue. The capital interest rate was stable, and inflation data was in line with expectations. [10] 3.5 Black Commodities - Screw and Ore: The trading rhythm this year is earlier than last year. Steel inventories may be high after the festival. Iron ore supply is abundant. In the short - term, steel and iron ore will oscillate. [12] - Coking Coal and Coke: The prices of coking coal and coke may oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the resumption of coal mines and downstream demand after the festival. [13] - Ferroalloys: Manganese ore may see a slight inventory reduction in the short - term. Manganese silicon will oscillate, and silicon iron can be considered as a long - position variety in the medium - term. [15] - Soda Ash and Glass: Currently, it is advisable to wait and see. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, and the demand for glass is expected to be weak. [16] 3.6 Non - ferrous and New Materials - Copper: Employment and inflation data will increase short - term copper price fluctuations, but copper prices are still supported by expected interest - rate cuts. [18] - Carbonate Lithium: In the short - term, it will be in a wide - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to buying opportunities on dips. The market is optimistic about long - term demand. [19] - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Industrial silicon will oscillate with limited downward adjustment space. Polysilicon will oscillate widely, and cautious operation is recommended. [20] 3.7 Agricultural Products - Cotton: It is in a stage of strong supply and weak demand, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to consolidate at a high level. Short - term trading is recommended. [23] - Sugar: Zhengzhou sugar follows international sugar prices and may rebound in a low - level range. Short - term trading in the low - level range before the festival is recommended. [26] - Eggs: Before the Spring Festival, it is recommended to reduce positions and wait and see. Attention should be paid to the impact of chicken culling and molting after the festival on the second - quarter contracts. [30] - Apples: High - quality apple supplies may remain strong, and the futures price may be bullish. [31] - Corn: The purchase and sale are becoming quiet, and attention should be paid to opportunities after the festival. Corn prices will oscillate at a high level before the festival. [32] - Red Dates: Currently, it is expected to oscillate weakly. [33] - Pigs: The spot price is lower than expected, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines before the holiday. [35] 3.8 Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Although the fundamentals are weak, the market is worried about geopolitical risks. Oil prices will oscillate with limited rebound space. [37] - Fuel Oil: Its price will follow the trend of oil prices, and the focus is on the impact of geopolitical factors on oil prices. [38] - Plastic: Polyolefins have large supply pressure and may oscillate weakly. [40] - Rubber: Overseas production areas are about to stop harvesting, which may support the price, but downstream replenishment is ending. Cautious trading is recommended. [41] - Synthetic Rubber: It is recommended to wait and see before the festival and pay attention to the opportunity of going long after the festival. [42] - Methanol: The long - term supply - demand pattern is improving, but attention should be paid to the uncertainty of the Middle - East situation. [43] - Caustic Soda: It will oscillate before the festival. Attention should be paid to the inventory change and the possibility of production reduction. [43] - Asphalt: It follows the trend of oil prices and is stronger than oil prices. The focus is on the change of Venezuelan crude oil discounts. [45] - PVC: The long - term supply - demand contradiction has not been improved, and attention should be paid to the risk of price correction. [46] - Polyester Industry Chain: It will follow the adjustment of crude oil prices in the short - term. The opportunity of long PTA and short EG arbitrage can be considered. [47] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: Its price will follow crude oil prices, and the geopolitical uncertainty risk still exists. Cautious trading is recommended. [48] - Paper Pulp: The short - term price has support, but it is recommended to wait and see due to market risks. [49] - Logs: The market expects a pattern of strong supply and weak demand after the festival, and price pressure may increase. Attention should be paid to risk control. [50] - Urea: The futures market is emotional, and an oscillating trading strategy is recommended. [51]