有色金属日报-20260212

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: The US plans to promote the commercial reserve of critical mineral resources, and China is expected to strengthen copper reserves. The US economic data is relatively volatile, and the manufacturing sentiment is strong, providing support on the sentiment side. The copper ore supply remains tight, while the domestic refined copper supply maintains high growth, with relatively abundant short - term supply. It is expected that copper prices will mainly fluctuate. [4] - Aluminum: Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories continue to accumulate, and downstream demand is weak in the off - season. The LME aluminum inventory remains at a relatively low level, and the US aluminum spot premium remains high, so there is still strong support for aluminum prices. It is expected that aluminum prices will be in a range - bound pattern. [7] - Lead: The visible inventory of lead ore has a slight decline but is still higher than the same period in previous years, and the lead concentrate processing fee remains at a low level. The waste battery inventory continues to rise, higher than that in 2025. Near the Spring Festival, the smelter's operating rate declines seasonally. The lead ingot social inventory continues to accumulate, and the domestic industry situation is weak. Whether the lead price can stabilize needs to be observed based on the restocking willingness of downstream battery enterprises after the Spring Festival. [10] - Zinc: The accumulation of visible zinc ore inventory slows down, and the zinc concentrate TC stops falling and stabilizes. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory begins to accumulate. The downstream enterprise operations are mediocre, and the finished - product inventories of die - casting zinc alloy and zinc oxide enterprises rise rapidly. The domestic zinc industry performs weakly. However, short - term funds are greatly affected by macro - sentiment disturbances. Near the Spring Festival holiday, there is still a risk of abnormal movements in non - ferrous metals during the festival. The strong US PMI boosts the market's expectation of consumption recovery, which may drive zinc prices to rise with the non - ferrous metal sector. [12] - Tin: After the secondary decline of precious metal prices, there are signs of stabilization, and tin prices may rebound. Although tin prices still maintain an upward trend in the medium - to - long term, in the short term, with the marginal relaxation of tin ingot supply and demand and the recent steady increase in inventory, there is also pressure for a significant increase. It is expected that tin prices will mainly operate in a wide - range oscillation. [14] - Nickel: After the secondary decline of precious metals and risk assets, they stabilize, and there is a short - term rebound demand. However, nickel still faces fundamental pressure, and it is expected that nickel prices will mainly fluctuate in a wide range. The approved nickel ore production quota is close to market expectations, and it is expected to have limited impact on nickel prices. [16] - Lithium Carbonate: In January, the year - on - year growth rates of domestic power and energy - storage battery production and sales were 55.9% and 85.1% respectively, and the lithium demand expectation is strong. After the Spring Festival, the production schedule growth rate of the material side is considerable. At the same time, there are frequent disturbances on the supply side. Although the substantial impact is limited, it is easy to ignite market sentiment under the inventory decline trend. In the future, the game between upstream hoarding and downstream restocking will affect the direction of lithium prices. [19] - Alumina: There is a strike in a mine in the Boké region of Guinea. It is necessary to observe whether the impact of the strike expands. Currently, production and shipping are normal. The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. Although there are more capacity overhauls recently, the overall output is still at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. [22] - Stainless Steel: From the supply side, although the raw material supply has recovered, under the influence of the steel mill's price - limit policy, the shipment rhythm of agents generally slows down. On the demand side, restricted by the pre - Spring Festival seasonal off - season, the overall market purchasing willingness is not strong, and the acceptance of high - priced resources is limited. Traders mostly choose to actively ship, reduce inventory, and mainly execute previous orders, with a weak willingness to actively restock. Steel mills will have collective production cuts in February, and the market generally believes that the subsequent supply will gradually tighten, and the short - term supply pressure is relatively controllable. Overall, the stainless - steel fundamentals still have support, and the strategy of buying on dips remains unchanged. [25] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The cost - side price of cast aluminum alloy rebounds. Although the demand is relatively average, under the background of continuous supply - side disturbances and seasonal tightness of raw material supply, the short - term price still has support. [28] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Copper - Market Information: The US employment data was better than expected. Overnight, US stocks rose first and then fell, and copper prices rose. The LME copper 3M closed up 1.06% to $13,239 per ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 102,190 yuan per ton. The LME copper inventory increased by 3,000 to 192,100 tons, with the increase coming from Asian warehouses. The cancelled warrant ratio increased, and Cash/3M remained at a discount. The domestic SHFE daily warehouse receipts increased by 13,000 to 179,000 tons. The Shanghai spot market turned to a discount of 50 yuan per ton to the futures, and the market trading remained dull. The Guangdong spot market was at a discount of 60 yuan per ton to the futures, and the holders of goods held firm on the basis price quotes, with dull trading. The Shanghai copper spot import loss was about 700 yuan per ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference was 3,110 yuan per ton, expanding compared with the previous period. [3] - Strategy Viewpoint: It is expected that copper prices will mainly fluctuate. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract today is 101,000 - 104,000 yuan per ton; the reference range for the LME copper 3M is 13,100 - 13,400 US dollars per ton. [4] Aluminum - Market Information: The situation between the US and Iran is still uncertain. Crude oil prices rose first and then fell, and aluminum prices rebounded. The LME aluminum closed up 0.39% to $3,117 per ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,555 yuan per ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract increased slightly to 663,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 1,000 to 168,000 tons. The domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory increased month - on - month, and the aluminum rod inventory also increased. The aluminum rod processing fee continued to rebound, and the spot trading remained dull. The East China electrolytic aluminum spot was at a discount of 190 yuan per ton to the futures, and the spot trading volume gradually declined. The LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 1,000 to 486,000 tons, the cancelled warrant ratio declined, and Cash/3M remained at a discount. [6] - Strategy Viewpoint: It is expected that aluminum prices will be in a range - bound pattern. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract today is 23,300 - 23,800 yuan per ton; the reference range for the LME aluminum 3M is 3,090 - 3,160 US dollars per ton. [7] Lead - Market Information: On Wednesday, the Shanghai lead index closed up 0.39% to 16,753 yuan per ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 124,100 lots. As of 15:00 on Wednesday, the LME lead 3S rose 8 to $1,978 per ton compared with the previous day, with a total position of 178,100 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,575 yuan per ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 16,550 yuan per ton, the refined - scrap price difference was 25 yuan per ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,875 yuan per ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 46,500 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 35 yuan per ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - consecutive contract was - 90 yuan per ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 232,800 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 15,900 tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - 50.95 US dollars per ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 126.6 US dollars per ton. After excluding the exchange rate, the disk Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.227, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was 306.79 yuan per ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets on February 9 was 49,900 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons compared with February 5. [9] - Strategy Viewpoint: Whether the lead price can stabilize needs to be observed based on the restocking willingness of downstream battery enterprises after the Spring Festival. [10] Zinc - Market Information: On Wednesday, the Shanghai zinc index closed up 0.57% to 24,634 yuan per ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 193,200 lots. As of 15:00 on Wednesday, the LME zinc 3S rose 50 to $3,416.5 per ton compared with the previous day, with a total position of 230,700 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 24,460 yuan per ton, the Shanghai basis was - 30 yuan per ton, the Tianjin basis was - 80 yuan per ton, the Guangdong basis was - 50 yuan per ton, and the Shanghai - Guangdong spread was 20 yuan per ton. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 42,300 tons, the domestic Shanghai - area basis was - 30 yuan per ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - consecutive contract was - 50 yuan per ton. The LME zinc ingot inventory was 106,800 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 11,800 tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - 19.55 US dollars per ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was 71.21 US dollars per ton. After excluding the exchange rate, the disk Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.046, and the zinc ingot import profit and loss was - 3,392.57 yuan per ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets on February 9 was 128,100 tons, an increase of 9,800 tons compared with February 5. [11] - Strategy Viewpoint: The strong US PMI boosts the market's expectation of consumption recovery, which may drive zinc prices to rise with the non - ferrous metal sector. [12] Tin - Market Information: On February 11, tin prices fluctuated and rose. The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 394,700 yuan per ton, up 3.32% from the previous day. On the supply side, the operating rate of smelters in Yunnan last week remained stable at a high level, and the refined tin output in Jiangxi was still low due to the shortage of scrap tin raw materials. However, after the two regions recovered from maintenance, the upward momentum was insufficient. There were both constraints on the scrap side and high - price waiting - and - seeing by downstream, and the short - term supply was difficult to increase significantly. On the demand side, although the price decline released some rigid procurement demand and the spot trading recovered slightly, the overall price was still at a high level, and the downstream's willingness to restock before the festival was still not obvious, mostly holding a cautious wait - and - see attitude. Coupled with the cost pressure on the terminal industry brought by the overall rise of the metal sector, the upward transmission speed of demand was slow, and the actual support for the现货 market was limited. [13] - Strategy Viewpoint: It is expected that tin prices will mainly operate in a wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 350,000 - 410,000 yuan per ton, and the reference operating range for overseas LME tin is 46,000 - 50,000 US dollars per ton. [14] Nickel - Market Information: On February 11, nickel prices rose significantly. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 139,360 yuan per ton, up 4.51% from the previous day. In the spot market, the premiums and discounts of various brands remained stable. The average premium of Russian nickel spot to the near - month contract was 50 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the average premium of Jinchuan nickel spot was 9,500 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day. On the cost side, nickel ore prices remained stable. The ex - factory price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic red - soil nickel ore was reported at $61.42 per wet ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the ex - factory price of 1.2% - grade Indonesian domestic red - soil nickel ore was reported at $25 per wet ton, unchanged from the previous day. In terms of nickel iron, prices fluctuated upward. The average price of 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was reported at 1,047.5 yuan per nickel point, up 7.5 yuan per nickel point from the previous day. [15] - Strategy Viewpoint: It is expected that nickel prices will mainly fluctuate in a wide range. The approved nickel ore production quota is close to market expectations, and it is expected to have limited impact on nickel prices. The reference range for Shanghai nickel prices is 120,000 - 150,000 yuan per ton, and the reference range for the LME nickel 3M contract is 16,000 - 18,000 US dollars per ton. [16] Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: The evening quotation of the Wukuang Steel Union lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) was 139,123 yuan, up 1.99% from the previous working day. Among them, the MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 135,500 - 143,600 yuan, with the average price up 2,750 yuan (+2.01%) from the previous working day, and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 132,500 - 140,500 yuan, with the average price up 1.87% from the previous day. The closing price of the LC2605 contract was 150,260 yuan, up 9.41% from the previous closing price. The average premium and discount of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 1,200 yuan. [18] - Strategy Viewpoint: The future game between upstream hoarding and downstream restocking will affect the direction of lithium prices. The reference operating range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract today is 138,000 - 156,000 yuan per ton. [19] Alumina - Market Information: On February 11, 2026, as of 15:00, the alumina index rose 0.28% intraday to 2,845 yuan per ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 457,800 lots, a decrease of 10,400 lots from the previous trading day. In terms of the basis, the Shandong spot price remained at 2,555 yuan per ton, at a discount of 287 yuan per ton to the main contract. Overseas, the MYSTEEL Australian FOB price remained at $304 per ton, and the import profit and loss was reported at - 65 yuan per ton. In terms of futures inventory, the futures warehouse receipts on Wednesday were reported at 262,700 tons, an increase of 11,700 tons from the previous trading day. At the mine end, the Guinea CIF price remained at $61 per ton, and the Australian CIF price remained at $58 per ton. [21] - Strategy Viewpoint: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,750 - 3,000 yuan per ton. It is necessary to focus on domestic supply contraction policies, Guinea ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy. [22] Stainless Steel - Market Information: At 15:00 on Wednesday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 14,040 yuan per ton, up 2.18% (+300) on the day, with a unilateral position of 205,500 lots, a decrease of 5,669 lots from the previous trading day.