中国期货每日简报-20260212

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On February 11, most equity index and CGB futures rose, and most commodities also showed high performances, with Lithium Carbonate and Nickel leading the raise [10][11][12] - The fundamentals of Lithium Carbonate are strong with continuous social inventory destocking, providing upward momentum for prices, but macro uncertainties are high during the Spring Festival, so investors are advised to exit temporarily and participate cautiously [19][20] - The fundamentals of Nickel have not shown marginal improvement, and the overall supply and demand in February are expected to remain loose with high visible inventories, but Indonesian policies provide some support to prices, so it is recommended to hold light positions cautiously before the holiday and continue to watch for dip - buying opportunities in the medium term [27][28][30] - Silicon Metal is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and prices are expected to remain range - bound. Although the supply - demand balance may improve around the Spring Festival after major producer cuts, medium - to - long - term prices will be pressured by flexible supply, weak demand and industry oversupply [33][35][36] Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On February 11, in equity index futures, IC rose 0.4% and IF dropped 0.1%; in CGB futures, T rose 0.06%. In commodity futures, the top three gainers were Lithium Carbonate (up 9.2% with open interest increasing 3.0% month - on - month), Nickel (up 4.0% with open interest decreasing 4.7% month - on - month), and Tin (up 3.3% with open interest decreasing 2.9% month - on - month). The top three decliners were SCFIS(Europe) (down 1.4% with open interest decreasing 2.6% month - on - month), Coke (down 0.9% with open interest increasing 2.3% month - on - month), and Glass (down 0.7% with open interest increasing 0.4% month - on - month) [10][11][12] 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Lithium Carbonate - On February 11, the front - month contract of Lithium Carbonate rose 9.2% to 150,260 yuan/ton. The rally was driven by strong supply - demand fundamentals, with the market expecting a post - holiday tight balance. However, the fundamentals have marginally weakened, with new energy vehicle wholesale sales up 1% year - on - year in January and port lithium ore inventories increasing. Demand - side production scheduling in March is expected to be solid, while supply will see a notable rise in imports. Before the resumption of production at the Jianxiawo project, a tight balance is forecast to persist [15][17][18] 1.2.2 Nickel - On February 11, affected by Indonesia approving a nickel ore quota of approximately 260 - 270 million tons, the front - month contract of Nickel rose 4.0% to 139,360 yuan/ton. Considering the concentrated capacity expansion of HPAL projects in Indonesia in 2026, the domestic demand for nickel ore is expected to be around 15% higher than the approved quota. Fundamentally, supply - side pressure persists, demand is in the off - season, and global visible inventories are high. Indonesian policies support prices, but high inventories may limit the upside [24][25][26] 1.3 Daily Drop 1.3.1 Silicon Metal - On February 11, the front - month contract of Silicon Metal dropped 0.5% to 8,370 yuan/ton. The supply side is affected by the dry season in the southwest and producer cuts in the northwest, with short - term supply pressure easing but long - term oversupply pressure remaining. The demand side is weak, with polysilicon, silicone having high inventories and reduced output. The supply - demand balance may improve around the Spring Festival, but medium - to - long - term prices will be pressured [33][34][35] 2. China News 2.1 Industry News - In January, China's CPI rose 0.2% month on month and 0.2% year on year, and the core CPI increased 0.8% year on year as consumer demand continued to recover [39] - The PBOC will continue to implement a properly accommodative monetary policy, taking promoting steady economic growth and a reasonable recovery in prices as important considerations, and flexibly using various policy tools to maintain ample liquidity and relatively accommodative social financing conditions [39]