招商期货-期货研究报告：商品期货早班车-20260212

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Metals - The precious metals market is gradually stabilizing. It is recommended to go long on gold again, and the long - term outlook remains positive. For silver, the spot market is still tight, but the price fluctuations on the futures market are increasing, so cautious participation is advised [1]. - For copper, it is recommended to wait for buying opportunities after the Spring Festival. Aluminum is expected to maintain a short - term price oscillation. Alumina has upward potential due to marginal supply contraction. Industrial silicon is likely to oscillate between 8200 - 8800 yuan/ton, and short - selling at high prices can be considered if the large - scale production cuts are short - lived. Lithium carbonate is expected to have an upward - biased price trend. Polysilicon is expected to weakly oscillate between 45000 - 53000 yuan/ton. Tin also requires waiting for buying opportunities after the Spring Festival [1][3][4]. Black Industry - For rebar, iron ore, and coking coal, the recommended strategy is mainly to wait and see, while aggressive investors can participate in short - term long - positions [5]. Agricultural Products - For soybean meal, focus on China's purchases of US soybeans and the realization of South American production. The domestic market is weaker than the overseas market, with a unilateral oscillation in search of a bottom and an inverse spread structure. Corn futures are expected to oscillate upward. For oils and fats, the market has entered an oscillation phase, with an inverse spread strategy. For cotton, it is advisable to buy at low prices. Egg, and hog futures are expected to oscillate downward [6][7]. Energy and Chemicals - LLDPE is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term and is recommended to be bought at low prices in the medium term. PVC is recommended to be observed. For PX, the mid - term long - position view remains unchanged, and for PTA, appropriate profit - taking is advised. Glass suggests a strategy of buying glass and selling soda ash. PP is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term and be short - sold at high prices in the medium term. MEG is recommended to be bought at low prices for short - term opportunities. Styrene is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in the short term and be bought at low prices in the medium term. Soda ash is recommended to be observed [8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory Precious Metals - Market Performance: Precious metals opened higher, oscillated, and slightly climbed in the night session yesterday [1]. - Fundamentals: The US added 130,000 non - farm jobs in January, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%, and there were downward revisions in previous data. Market expectations for interest - rate cuts have been postponed. The US budget deficit has shrunk, but future deficit expectations are rising. There are changes in gold and silver inventories and ETF holdings [1]. - Trading Strategy: The precious metals market is stabilizing. Go long on gold and be cautious with silver [1]. Base Metals Copper - Market Performance: Copper prices rose and then declined yesterday [3]. - Fundamentals: The stronger - than - expected non - farm data led to a stronger US dollar and weaker metals. The supply of copper ore remains tight, and the domestic demand for replenishment has ended [3]. - Trading Strategy: Wait for buying opportunities after the Spring Festival [3]. Aluminum - Market Performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.62% [3]. - Fundamentals: Electrolytic aluminum plants are operating at high loads, and the weekly aluminum product operating rate has slightly increased [3]. - Trading Strategy: Due to uncertainties in the macro - environment and a supply - demand balance, the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [3]. Alumina - Market Performance: The closing price of the alumina main contract increased by 0.25% [3]. - Fundamentals: Some alumina plants are in the production - reduction and overhaul phase, while electrolytic aluminum plants are operating at high loads [3]. - Trading Strategy: Pay attention to the subsequent overhaul and shutdown situations as there is upward potential in the price [4]. Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: The main 05 contract decreased by 5 yuan/ton [4]. - Fundamentals: The number of open furnaces decreased last week, mainly in Xinjiang. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon is expected to decline, and the aluminum alloy operating rate is stable [4]. - Trading Strategy: The market is in a supply - demand balance. Observe the resumption of production by large enterprises after the Spring Festival. Consider short - selling at high prices if the production cuts are short - lived [4]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: LC2605 increased by 9.41% [4]. - Fundamentals: Some lithium salt plants are under maintenance. Production and demand in the lithium - related industries are expected to decline. The inventory is expected to be in a tight balance in Q1, and the number of inventory days has increased [4]. - Trading Strategy: The market has an upward - biased expectation for the material production in March. The price is expected to oscillate upward [4]. Polysilicon - Market Performance: The main 05 contract increased by 230 yuan/ton [4]. - Fundamentals: The weekly production is stable, and the inventory is unchanged. The production of silicon wafers is stable, while that of battery cells and components is expected to decline. The photovoltaic export policy provides some support [4]. - Trading Strategy: The price is expected to weakly oscillate between 45000 - 53000 yuan/ton [4]. Tin - Market Performance: Tin prices continued to oscillate upward [4]. - Fundamentals: The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the downstream replenishment has ended [4]. - Trading Strategy: Wait for buying opportunities after the Spring Festival [4]. Black Industry Rebar - Market Performance: The main 2605 contract decreased by 18 yuan/ton [5]. - Fundamentals: The building material inventory has increased. The building material demand is weak, but the supply has decreased significantly year - on - year. The plate demand is stable, and the inventory change is at a historical high. Steel mills are in a loss, and the production increase is limited [5]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see. Aggressive investors can participate in short - term long - positions on the 2605 contract [5]. Iron Ore - Market Performance: The main 2605 contract decreased by 2.5 yuan/ton [5]. - Fundamentals: The shipments from Australia and Brazil have decreased. The iron ore supply - demand is neutral. The iron - water production has slightly increased. The furnace - charge replenishment is almost complete, and the inventory days are above the historical average. There is a structural contradiction in the port inventory [5]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see. Aggressive investors can participate in short - term long - positions on the 2605 contract [5]. Coking Coal - Market Performance: The main 2605 contract decreased by 7.5 yuan/ton [5]. - Fundamentals: The iron - water production has increased. Steel mills are in a loss, and the blast - furnace production may decline. The first round of price increases has been implemented, and there are no further plans. The overall inventory is at a medium level, and the futures valuation is high [5]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see. Aggressive investors can participate in short - term long - positions on the 2605 contract [5]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market Performance: The overnight CBOT soybeans rose [6]. - Fundamentals: The USDA report increased the Brazilian soybean production, and the global supply is becoming more abundant. The US soybean crushing is strong, and the export expectation is increasing [6]. - Trading Strategy: The US soybeans are strong. Focus on China's purchases and South American production. The domestic market is weaker, with a unilateral oscillation in search of a bottom and an inverse spread structure [6]. Corn - Market Performance: Corn futures prices are rising, while the spot prices in the Northeast are slightly falling and those in the North China are slightly rising [6]. - Fundamentals: The grain - selling progress has exceeded 60%, and the pressure is not high. The selling sentiment in the Northeast has increased, and the downstream is gradually stopping purchases [6]. - Trading Strategy: The futures prices are expected to oscillate upward due to policy support [6]. Oils and Fats - Market Performance: The Malaysian palm oil market is weak in the short term [7]. - Fundamentals: The Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 14% month - on - month in January, and the export increased by 11%. The inventory decreased by 7.7% to 2.82 million tons [7]. - Trading Strategy: The market has entered an oscillation phase, with an inverse spread strategy. Pay attention to future production and bio - diesel policies [7]. Cotton - Market Performance: The overnight ICE US cotton futures prices oscillated upward, and the international crude oil prices continued to rise [7]. - Fundamentals: The global cotton production in 25/26 is expected to increase. The Indian cotton production remains unchanged. The domestic cotton prices are rising, and the textile enterprises' inventory has increased [7]. - Trading Strategy: Buy at low prices, with a price range of 14600 - 15000 yuan/ton [7]. Eggs - Market Performance: Egg futures prices are weak, and the spot prices have stopped being quoted [7]. - Fundamentals: The laying - hen inventory is decreasing, but the replenishment is active. The stocking is ending, and the demand is weakening [7]. - Trading Strategy: The futures prices are expected to oscillate downward [7]. Hogs - Market Performance: Hog futures and spot prices are both weak [7]. - Fundamentals: The short - term slaughter volume has increased, but it is expected to decline after the Minor New Year. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak [7]. - Trading Strategy: The futures prices are expected to oscillate downward [7]. Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - Market Performance: The main contract continued to oscillate slightly. The spot price in North China is 6570 yuan/ton, and the basis is weak [8]. - Fundamentals: The domestic supply pressure has slowed down, and the import is expected to decrease. The downstream demand is weakening [8]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillate weakly in the short term and be bought at low prices in the medium term [8]. PVC - Market Performance: V05 increased by 0.5% [9]. - Fundamentals: The trading is light, and the price is stable. The supply is large, and the demand is seasonally weakening. The social inventory is accumulating [9]. - Trading Strategy: Observe due to balanced supply and weak demand [9]. PTA - Market Performance: The PX CFR China price is 917 US dollars/ton, and the PTA spot price in East China is 5180 yuan/ton [9]. - Fundamentals: The supply of PX and PTA is at a high level. The polyester factory load is decreasing, and the market is in a state of inventory accumulation [9]. - Trading Strategy: Maintain a long - position view on PX and take appropriate profits on PTA [9]. Glass - Market Performance: fg05 decreased by 0.7% [9]. - Fundamentals: The price is stable. The supply has decreased, and the inventory is high. The downstream demand is weak [9]. - Trading Strategy: Buy glass and sell soda ash [9]. PP - Market Performance: The main contract continued to oscillate slightly. The spot price in East China is 6550 yuan/ton, and the basis is weak [9]. - Fundamentals: The domestic supply is increasing, and the export window is open. The downstream demand is weakening due to the holiday [9]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillate weakly in the short term and be short - sold at high prices in the medium term [9]. MEG - Market Performance: The spot price in East China is 3675 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 105 yuan/ton [10]. - Fundamentals: The supply is increasing, and the import is decreasing. The inventory is at a medium - high level, and the market is in a state of inventory accumulation [10]. - Trading Strategy: Consider short - term long - positions as the inventory may start to decrease in March [10]. Styrene - Market Performance: The main contract oscillated slightly. The spot price in East China is 7550 yuan/ton, and the trading is average [10]. - Fundamentals: The pure - benzene inventory is at a normal - high level, and the styrene inventory is at a normal - low level. The supply and demand are both weak [10]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillate widely in the short term and be bought at low prices in the medium term [10]. Soda Ash - Market Performance: sa05 remained unchanged [10]. - Fundamentals: The price is at the bottom, and the supply is large. The inventory is accumulating, and the demand from the photovoltaic glass industry is weak [10]. - Trading Strategy: Observe due to increased supply and weak demand [10].