Report Summary 1. Market Performance on February 11, 2026 - A-shares: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.09% to 4131.99, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.35% to 14160.93, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.08% to 3284.74. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2001.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 123.7 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - CSI 300 Index: Closed at 4713.82, a decrease of 10.48 from the previous day [2]. 2. Commodity Futures 2.1. Coking Coal and Coke - Coke: The weighted index of coke showed a weak oscillation, closing at 1672.6, a decrease of 14.0 from the previous day. Spot price increases have been implemented, and coke enterprises' profits have recovered, with a slight increase in production enthusiasm. However, environmental protection restrictions still have an impact, and the weekly high - frequency data shows a slight increase in the operating rate of coke enterprises. Steel mills' pre - holiday inventory replenishment is basically over [2][4]. - Coking Coal: The weighted index of coking coal showed a weak consolidation, closing at 1134.9 yuan, a decrease of 3.1 from the previous day. The scope of Spring Festival shutdowns in domestic coal mines has expanded this week, and domestic coal supply has entered a seasonal low, with production decreasing month - on - month. Spot supply is tight, and high - frequency data shows that Mongolian coal customs clearance remains at a high level, with continuous replenishment of imported resources. Coke enterprises' inventory preparation is basically completed, and they mainly purchase on demand, with pig iron production stabilizing at a low level [3][4]. 2.2. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the expectation of global supply surplus, US sugar oscillated and declined on Tuesday. Affected by the decline of US sugar and the reduction of spot quotes, long - position liquidation pressured the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract to oscillate downward on Wednesday. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) said on Tuesday that the US sugar production in the 2025/26 season starting in October is expected to reach a record high of 9.41 million short tons, helped by the increase in cane sugar production. The sugar inventory/use ratio is estimated to be 15.9%, much higher than the 13.5% level that the USDA usually considers sufficient for the market. The estimated sugar import volume in the 2025/26 season is 2.24 million short tons, lower than the 3.39 million short tons in the previous season, which will be one of the lowest import volumes in recent years [4]. 2.3. Rubber - Due to the decrease in raw material supply, the spot quotes in Southeast Asia were raised today. Affected by this, the Shanghai rubber oscillated higher on Wednesday. Due to the large short - term increase, affected by the technical side, the Shanghai rubber oscillated and adjusted at night, with varieties rising and falling. The latest data shows that the natural rubber export volume of Cote d'Ivoire in January 2026 was 163,000 tons, a decrease of 1.8% compared with 166,000 tons in the same period last year and a month - on - month decrease of 5.8%. Vietnam's rubber export volume in January was 204,954 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.1% but a year - on - year increase of 27.3% [4]. 2.4. Palm Oil - On February 11, the palm oil futures continued to operate weakly before the festival. The market oscillated within the daily range. By the afternoon close, the main contract P2605 of palm oil closed with a doji candlestick with upper and lower shadows. The highest price was 8950, the lowest price was 8886, and the closing price was 8950, a decrease of 0.38% from the previous trading day. According to the POC 2026 industry conference, driven by the low inventory level, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil in 2026 is expected to reach 16 million tons, while the annual total output may be slightly lower than 20 million tons. Global palm oil industry analyst Thomas Mielke expects the price of Malaysian RBD palm olein to be between $1000 - $1200 per ton in the first half of 2026 and between $1100 - $1350 per ton in the second half of 2026 [5]. 2.5. Soybean Meal - International Market: On February 11 (Wednesday), CBOT soybean futures closed slightly higher. The USDA's February supply - demand report was as expected, only slightly increasing the South American soybean production forecast. The report raised the Brazilian soybean production forecast from 178 million tons last month to 180 million tons, higher than market expectations. Agricultural consulting firm AgRural said that as of February 5, the Brazilian soybean harvest progress had reached 16%, higher than 15% in the same period last year. The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec) said that Brazil's soybean exports in February are expected to be 11.71 million tons, significantly increasing the supply capacity to the international market. - Domestic Market: On February 11, the main soybean meal contract M2605 closed at 2773 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.43%. Before the festival, the soybean crushing volume of oil mills remained high, the soybean crushing volume was relatively high, the soybean meal output increased, and the inventory continued to rise. The purchase of imported soybeans for the March shipment has been basically completed, and the arrival volume of Brazilian soybeans in April and May will significantly increase. The pre - holiday demand boost effect has declined, and the expectation of loose supply has been continuously postponed. It is recommended to focus on the South American weather changes and the soybean arrival volume in the future [5]. 2.6. Live Pigs - On February 11 (Wednesday), the main live pig contract LH2605 closed at 11,555 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.74% from the previous trading day. On the supply side, as the pre - holiday slaughter window narrows, the price - holding mentality of the breeding side has loosened, and the incremental slaughter operations of group pig enterprises and individual pig farms have increased. Moreover, the supply of suitable - weight standard pigs in February is still at a high level, and the suitable - weight pig sources are facing over - supply pressure, with the overall market supply tending to be loose. On the demand side, as the Spring Festival approaches, the phenomenon of residents' inventory replenishment has increased, providing phased support for pig prices, but the overall demand boost is limited. In the future, focus on the inventory of breeding sows and the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises [5]. 2.7. Shanghai Copper - The main Shanghai copper contract opened at 101,660, reached a high of 102,530, a low of 101,510, and closed at 102,180, with a settlement price of 101,930. The trading volume was 94,600 lots, and the open interest was 159,000 lots. It oscillated slightly stronger within a narrow range during the day and closed slightly higher at the end of the session. Downstream industries (cables, home appliances, infrastructure) have successively stopped work, the spot demand has weakened, and the trading has been light. The average price of Yangtze River No. 1 copper was 101,430 (- 550, - 0.54%); SMM No. 1 copper was 101,100 - 101,530 (average price - 410). The futures were stronger than the spot, the basis weakened, and the funds were more cautious approaching the Spring Festival. The LME copper in the external market also strengthened slightly, and the domestic sentiment was relatively stable. In the future, pay attention to the US CPI data, which may affect the overall rhythm of the US dollar and non - ferrous metals [5]. 2.8. Cotton - On Wednesday night, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 14,815 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory increased by 60 lots compared with the previous trading day. Textile enterprises mainly purchase raw materials for rigid demand, and China's imported cotton volume in 2025 reached a five - year low [5]. 2.9. Logs - The main log contract 2603 opened at 772 on Wednesday, with a low of 772, a high of 780.5, and a close of 777, with a daily reduction of 553 lots. There are still two trading days before the festival. Pay attention to the support from the spot side and the margin - increasing market before the festival. On February 11, the spot market quotes for logs: the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day; the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day. Although the external market has raised prices, the domestic spot market is stable before the festival, and the situation needs to be verified after the festival. In the future, pay attention to the spot price, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro - expected market sentiment for prices [6]. 2.10. Iron Ore - On February 11, the main iron ore contract 2605 oscillated and closed down, with a decline of 0.07% and a closing price of 762.5 yuan. The shipment of Australian and Brazilian iron ore in this period decreased month - on - month, the domestic arrival volume also decreased, the port inventory continued to accumulate, the steel mills' inventory replenishment demand gradually ended, and the growth space of pig iron production was limited. The short - term iron ore price is in an oscillating trend [6]. 2.11. Asphalt - On February 11, the main asphalt contract 2604 oscillated and closed up, with an increase of 0.51% and a closing price of 3373 yuan. The asphalt supply remained at a low level, the refinery inventory pressure was not large, the terminal demand continued to shrink, the pre - holiday spot trading was light, and the short - term asphalt price showed an oscillating operation [6]. 2.12. Steel - On February 11, rb2605 closed at 3054 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3228 yuan/ton. As the Chinese Spring Festival holiday approaches, more steel enterprises have stopped production for maintenance. Although steel enterprises are in the process of shutdown and maintenance, the downstream terminal demand has basically stagnated, the steel spot inventory has continued to accumulate, the supply and demand are difficult to form a large gap, the supply and demand basically maintain a weak balance structure, most merchants are cautious and wait - and - see, and the situation of having prices but no transactions is obvious [6]. 2.13. Alumina - On February 11, ao2605 closed at 2842 yuan/ton. Downstream electrolytic aluminum plants maintain full production to provide rigid demand, but the construction in terminal fields such as construction has declined due to the approaching Spring Festival. On the cost side, the prices of bauxite and caustic soda have declined, and the cost - side support has weakened. The overall supply - demand pattern of alumina still maintains a relatively loose pattern, the upward driving force is limited, and the alumina price maintains an oscillating operation in the low - level range [6]. 2.14. Shanghai Aluminum - On February 11, al2603 closed at 23,660 yuan/ton. On the macro side, the market atmosphere has continued to weaken before the Spring Festival, precious metals have continued to fluctuate in a narrow range at a high level, and the capital sentiment is relatively mild. Continue to pay attention to the dynamics of the Federal Reserve and geopolitics. On the fundamental supply side, the operation is stable, the aluminum - water ratio continues to decline, the ingot - casting volume increases, the social inventory continues to accumulate, and it is continuously at a high level year - on - year. On the demand side, the performance continues to shrink, the logistics and transportation have stagnated, downstream enterprises in Central China have made sporadic inventory replenishment, large - scale traders in South China have received goods, and the overall trading has slowed down. Large - scale downstream processing plants maintain a certain demand, the orders of small and medium - sized factories continue to shrink, and the scope of shutdowns and production cuts in small and medium - sized factories has expanded, with limited driving force for prices [6].
国新国证期货早报-20260212
Guo Xin Guo Zheng Qi Huo·2026-02-12 01:57