尿素：节前震荡有支撑

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, urea prices are expected to fluctuate with support before the Spring Festival. The support mainly comes from the improvement in spot trading driven by pre - Spring Festival order collection and the strong expectation of agricultural spring plowing demand after the Spring Festival. For the 05 contract, the fundamental pressure level is around 1,830 yuan/ton, and the fundamental support level is expected to be around 1,750 - 1,760 yuan/ton [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Urea Fundamental Data - Futures Market: The closing price of the urea main contract was 1,797 yuan/ton (up 12 yuan from the previous day), the settlement price was 1,793 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan), the trading volume was 115,177 lots (up 13,273 lots), the open interest of the 05 contract was 224,093 lots (up 5,288 lots), the number of warehouse receipts was 10,949 tons (down 87 tons), the trading volume was 413,090 ten - thousand yuan (up 48,025 ten - thousand yuan). The Shandong regional basis was 3 (down 12), the Fengxi - disk basis was - 127 (down 12), the Dongguang - disk basis was - 7 (down 12), and the UR05 - UR09 spread was 41 (down 1) [1] - Spot Market: The factory prices of Henan Xinlianxin, Yankuang Xinjiang, Shandong Ruixing, Hebei Dongguang, and Jiangsu Linggu remained unchanged at 1,780 yuan/ton, 1,320 yuan/ton, 1,780 yuan/ton, 1,790 yuan/ton, and 1,830 yuan/ton respectively. The price of Shanxi Fengxi increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,680 yuan/ton. The trader prices in Shandong and Shanxi regions remained unchanged at 1,800 yuan/ton and 1,680 yuan/ton respectively. The supply - side indicators showed that the operating rate was 89.66% (up 1.78 percentage points), and the daily output was 211,110 tons (up 4,200 tons) [1] 3.2 Industry News - On February 4, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 918,500 tons, a decrease of 26,300 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 2.79%. During this period, the inventory of domestic urea enterprises decreased slightly. Near the Spring Festival, urea factories mainly focused on receiving orders and clearing inventory. The market continued to fluctuate narrowly recently, and some urea factories still mainly reduced inventory due to agricultural pick - up in some areas. Provinces where enterprise inventory decreased included Anhui, Hainan, Henan, Heilongjiang, Hubei, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, and Sichuan. Provinces where enterprise inventory increased included Gansu, Hebei, Qinghai, Xinjiang, and Yunnan [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of urea is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the trend intensity ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3]