贵属策略报：?农超预期重塑降息预期，?银?位波动加剧

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The strong employment data in January reshaped the interest rate cut expectations, leading to increased high - level volatility in precious metals. Gold is under short - term pressure, and the trading focus returns to the interest rate path. Silver's financial attribute is under pressure, and the structural differentiation continues [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Logic: The new employment and salary data are higher than expected, and the unemployment rate has fallen, strengthening the narrative of labor market resilience. The market's pricing of the easing rhythm this year needs adjustment. The dollar and yields rebound simultaneously, and the expected real interest rate rises, directly suppressing non - interest - bearing assets. Before the data release, the bond market yield was at a stage low, and there was a weak data expectation gap. Strong data triggered reverse hedging and long - position profit - taking, intensifying price fluctuations [1]. - Outlook: Before the employment and salary show clear weakening signals, the interest rate cut trading is difficult to develop unilaterally. The gold price may enter a stage of high - level oscillation and repeated sentiment. In the medium term, it still depends on the direction of the real interest rate and the change of the dollar trend [1]. Silver - Logic: The strong employment data boosts interest rate expectations, and the financial attribute of silver is under pressure. The industrial demand expectation has not weakened significantly, making the silver price more elastic than the gold price, but with more prominent high - volatility characteristics. The Shanghai silver maintains relative strength, indicating that the internal - external market structure has not completely weakened, but the capital game has intensified [2]. - Outlook: If the dollar and yields remain strong, the silver price volatility will remain high. If the subsequent macro data weakens again, silver still has room for repair under the "interest rate cut + risk hedging" framework [2]. Commodity Index - Comprehensive Index: The commodity index is 2390.85, up 0.32%; the commodity 20 index is 2729.71, up 0.27%; the industrial products index is 2290.96, up 0.41% [40]. - Precious Metals Index: On February 11, 2026, the precious metals index was 4268.21, with a daily increase of 0.17%, a 5 - day decline of 1.35%, a 1 - month decline of 2.30%, and a year - to - date increase of 11.61% [42].