沃仕鹰派预期交易弱化，基本金属震荡回升

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report The weakening of the hawkish expectations trading on Wash has led to an upward trend in the prices of basic metals. Although the macro - outlook has improved, it is still unclear. The raw material supply remains tight, and there are still potential disturbances in the smelting process, providing strong support on the supply side. The terminal demand is weak currently, but there is an expectation of tightened supply - demand balance in the medium term. Overall, copper, aluminum, tin and other metals are expected to maintain a moderately strong oscillatory trend [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Outlook - Copper: High inventory levels will keep copper prices oscillating at a high level. The supply of copper ore is tight, and the expected reduction in refined copper supply is increasing. However, weak demand and high inventory limit the upward potential of copper prices. In the long - term, copper prices are expected to be moderately strong [6]. - Alumina: The expectation of production cuts is pitted against the reality of oversupply, causing alumina prices to oscillate. The average spot price has dropped, and the high - cost inland production capacity is facing losses, increasing the expectation of supply reduction. But the actual supply reduction is insufficient, and the cost is also decreasing [7]. - Aluminum: The repeated sentiment of funds causes aluminum prices to fluctuate within a narrow range. The macro - outlook is expected to be positive, but the current demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. In the medium - term, the supply is expected to be tight, and the price center is likely to rise [8][9]. - Aluminum Alloy: Cost support persists, and prices will oscillate. The cost of scrap aluminum is high, and the supply is tight. Although the demand is affected by high prices, the cost support and the expected supply - demand balance will keep prices moderately strong [10]. - Zinc: The significant accumulation of social inventory will keep zinc prices oscillating. The macro - outlook has improved, but the supply pressure has increased, and the demand is in the off - season. In the long - term, zinc prices are expected to decline [11]. - Lead: Solid cost support will keep lead prices oscillating. The production of lead ingots has decreased slightly, and the demand is weakening, but the high cost of waste batteries provides support [14]. - Nickel: The release of Indonesia's 2026 nickel ore quota has pushed nickel prices higher. The supply pressure is high, and the demand is in the off - season. However, the adjustment of Indonesia's policy on nickel ore has supported nickel prices, and it is expected to be moderately strong [15][16]. - Stainless Steel: The rise in nickel prices has led to an upward - oscillating trend in the stainless - steel market. The cost is supported, but the production is expected to decline in February due to the Spring Festival, and the demand is weak. Overall, it is expected to be moderately strong [17]. - Tin: The continuous supply contraction provides strong support for tin prices. The supply in some regions is still restricted, and the demand in semiconductor, photovoltaic and new - energy vehicle industries is increasing, so tin prices are expected to be moderately strong [19]. 2. Market Monitoring - Commodity Index: On February 11, 2026, the comprehensive index, the commodity 20 index, and the industrial product index of CITICS Futures all showed an upward trend, with increases of 0.32%, 0.27%, and 0.41% respectively. The non - ferrous metal index increased by 0.24% on the day, decreased by 0.08% in the past 5 days, decreased by 5.51% in the past month, and increased by 0.32% since the beginning of the year [147][148].