淡季?盾积累，盘?表现承压

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel: Before the festival, demand weakens, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the futures price is under pressure to adjust downward, but the downward space is limited due to pre - two sessions macro disturbances [7] - Iron ore: The inventory pressure increases, the supply side has weather disturbance expectations, the post - festival demand expectation is average, and the futures price is under pressure to oscillate [8] - Scrap steel: Supply and daily consumption are expected to decline seasonally. As restocking nears the end, the fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [9] - Coke: Supply growth is limited, downstream steel mills have复产 expectations, the supply - demand structure is healthy, the spot price is expected to remain stable, and the futures price will follow coking coal [10] - Coking coal: Before and after the Spring Festival, supply and demand are expected to decline. After the festival, the resumption of production is restricted, the fundamentals may remain healthy, the spot price is expected to oscillate, and the futures price will oscillate widely [11] - Glass: Supply has disturbance expectations, mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high, supply exceeds demand, and high inventories will suppress prices if there is no more cold repair by the end of the year [12] - Soda ash: The overall supply exceeds demand. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the supply - surplus pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline [12] - Manganese silicon: The market has strong supply and weak demand, the upstream de - stocking pressure increases, and the futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost [14] - Ferrosilicon: The market has weak supply and demand, the fundamentals have limited contradictions, the trading activity is low around the Spring Festival, and the futures price is expected to run at a low level around the cost [16] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Iron ore: The inventory pressure continues to increase, the supply side has weather disturbance expectations, the current market's post - festival demand expectation is average, the futures price is under pressure, but after the rapid decline, the pressure is released. Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes. The global shipping volume has declined slightly this period, mainly due to the impact of tropical cyclones in Australia. If there are no other sudden disturbances, the supply side will maintain a relatively loose pattern. The demand side has stable rigid demand, and the support for prices may weaken as restocking progresses [2][7][8] - Scrap steel: Supply and daily consumption are expected to decline seasonally. As restocking nears the end, the overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products. The average arrival volume this week has decreased significantly, and the daily consumption has also decreased. The inventory of steel enterprises has increased, and the total inventory available days are close to the same period last year [2][9] 3.2 Carbon Element - Coke: Supply growth is limited, downstream steel mills have复产 expectations, the supply - demand structure will remain healthy, the spot price is expected to remain stable, and the futures price will follow coking coal. After the first round of price increases, the coking profit has improved significantly, and the overall coke supply has increased. The demand side has a strong rigid demand for coke, and the inventory of steel mills has increased, but the available days are lower than the same period [2][10] - Coking coal: Before the Spring Festival, supply and demand are expected to decline. After the festival, the resumption of production of coal mines is still restricted, the fundamentals may remain healthy, the spot price is expected to oscillate, and the futures price will oscillate widely. As the Spring Festival approaches, the supply of domestic coal mines will decline, and the import of Mongolian coal is still at a high level. The inventory of coking coal is transferring from upstream mines to downstream [2][11] 3.3 Alloys - Manganese silicon: The market has strong supply and weak demand, the upstream de - stocking pressure increases, and the futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost. The upstream inventory is high, the cost price is firm, the demand side's support for prices weakens, and the market inventory may further accumulate [3][14] - Ferrosilicon: The market has weak supply and demand, the fundamentals have limited contradictions, the trading activity is low around the Spring Festival, and the futures price is expected to run at a low level around the cost. The cost side has strengthened support, the demand side's support for prices weakens, and the daily production level of ferrosilicon continues to be low [3][16] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: Supply has disturbance expectations, mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high, supply exceeds demand, and high inventories will suppress prices if there is no more cold repair by the end of the year. The short - term price is expected to oscillate. The supply side is difficult to have a large number of cold repairs in the short term, and the demand side is weak, and the mid - level inventory suppresses the futures price [3][12] - Soda ash: The overall supply exceeds demand. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the supply - surplus pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline. The supply side's daily output has increased, the demand side's demand for heavy soda ash is weakening, and the overall downstream demand is showing a downward trend [3][12]