国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列-20260212

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Range - bound trading [2][4] - Rebar: Wide - range trading [2][6] - Hot - rolled coil: Wide - range trading [2][6] - Ferrosilicon: Wide - range trading [2][10] - Silicomanganese: Wide - range trading [2][10] - Coke: Wide - range trading [2][14] - Coking coal: Wide - range trading affected by events [2][15] - Logs: Range - bound trading [2][19] 2. Core Views - The report provides investment ratings and trend intensities for various black - series commodities, and presents their fundamentals and relevant macro and industry news [2][4][6] 3. Summaries by Commodities Iron Ore - Price and Position: The closing price of I2605 was 762.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.13%); the position decreased by 6,983 hands to 506,957 hands [4] - Spot Price: Imported and domestic ore prices remained stable [4] - Basis and Spread: The basis and spreads of some contracts changed slightly [4] - News: In January, CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year, core CPI rose 0.8% year - on - year, PPI rose 0.4% month - on - month and fell 1.4% year - on - year; China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3 [4] - Trend Intensity: - 1 [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Price and Position: The closing price of RB2605 was 3,054 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (- 0.07%); the closing price of HC2605 was 3,228 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.06%). The position of RB2605 decreased by 1,877 hands, and that of HC2605 increased by 9,529 hands [6] - Spot Price: Spot prices in major cities remained unchanged [6] - Basis and Spread: The basis and spreads of some contracts changed [6] - News: On February 5th, steel production, inventory and apparent demand data changed; in late January, key steel enterprises' production and inventory data changed; BHP's iron ore production hit a record high; China's steel import data changed; some steel products were subject to export license management [7][8] - Trend Intensity: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [8] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Price and Position: The closing prices of SiFe2603 and SiFe2605 decreased, while those of SiMn2603 and SiMn2605 increased [11] - News: A new capacity of a silicon - manganese plant in Inner Mongolia was ignited; Jupiter would not provide manganese ore supply and quotes to China in March; silicon - iron and silicon - manganese prices were reported; a steel mill's silicon - iron procurement price was determined; electricity prices in some southern regions increased, and southern silicon - manganese production was expected to decrease [10][11][12] - Trend Intensity: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [13] Coke and Coking Coal - Price and Position: The closing price of JM2605 was 1,123.5 yuan/ton, up 4.5 yuan/ton (0.4%); the closing price of J2605 was 1,667 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.1%). The position of JM2605 decreased by 14,309 hands, and that of J2605 increased by 820 hands [15] - Spot Price: Most spot prices remained stable, with a 2 - yuan increase in Mongolian 5 coking coal in Tangshan [15] - Basis and Spread: The basis and spreads of some contracts changed [15] - News: On February 11th, CCI metallurgical coal index data was reported; the coking coal online auction had a 43% non - successful bid rate, with most transaction prices falling [15] - Trend Intensity: 0 for both coke and coking coal [18] Logs - Price, Volume and Position: The closing prices, trading volumes and positions of different log contracts changed, with some showing declines. Spot prices in most regions remained stable [19] - News: In January, CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year, core CPI rose 0.8% year - on - year, PPI rose 0.4% month - on - month and fell 1.4% year - on - year; China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3 [21] - Trend Intensity: 0 [21]