铜冠金源期货商品日报-20260212

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US January non - farm payrolls were better than expected, with the A - share market continuing its volume - shrinking repair. The employment market shows a divergence between "strong single - month performance" and "slowing medium - term momentum". The market's interest - rate cut expectations have been postponed, and the market is expected to be dominated by shock repair in the short term, with structural opportunities prevailing [2][3]. - Precious metals rebounded despite the better - than - expected US non - farm employment data. The market was more sensitive to the poor 2025 employment data after revision. Short - term precious metal prices may show a wide - range shock trend [4][5]. - Copper prices are running strongly. The strong non - farm data and concerns about policy intervention are expected to drive the metal market to rise in the medium term. The supply of copper concentrates is growing at a low rate, and copper prices are expected to remain in a high - level shock in the short term [6][7]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure and fluctuating. The strong US employment data supports the Fed to postpone interest - rate cuts, increasing the upward pressure on metals. The supply of aluminum ingots is increasing, and aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [8][9]. - Alumina is currently in a short - term stable shock, but there is still significant upward pressure in the long term [10]. - Cast aluminum is in a range - bound shock due to the light supply - demand situation and the impact of macro - level employment data on interest - rate cut expectations [11]. - Zinc prices are under pressure and fluctuating. The strong non - farm report has postponed the market's interest - rate cut expectations, and the fundamentals are under pressure. Zinc prices are expected to remain under pressure before the holiday [12]. - Lead prices are in a low - level shock due to the weak supply and demand on both sides of the lead market [13][14]. - Tin prices are in a weak rebound, and the upward space is limited. The market has reduced bets on Fed interest - rate cuts, and the spot market is weak. The price is expected to be affected by the 20 - day moving average resistance [15]. - Steel prices are in a weak shock before the holiday. The steel market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, and it is expected to be mainly in a shock in the short term [16]. - Iron ore prices are in a shock trend. The supply and demand are both weak, and the impact of post - holiday steel mill resumption on demand needs to be observed [17]. - Coking coal and coke prices are in a shock trend. The spot market is weakly stable, the supply of coking coal is shrinking, and the production of coking enterprises is restricted [18][19]. - Bean and rapeseed meal prices are rising in a shock. Brazil's soybean exports are at a high level in the same period, and the import cost increase supports the shock rise of domestic bean meal. It is expected to be in an overall shock operation in the short term [20]. - Palm oil prices are falling in a shock. The production of Malaysian palm oil has declined month - on - month, and the inventory reduction in February is expected to weaken the price support. Palm oil is expected to fall in a shock in the short term [21][22]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Metal Main Varieties Yesterday's Trading Data - Copper: SHFE copper closed at 102180 yuan/ton, up 0.61%; LME copper closed at 13239 dollars/ton, up 1.06% [23]. - Aluminum: SHFE aluminum closed at 23660 yuan/ton, up 0.62%; LME aluminum closed at 3117 dollars/ton, up 0.39% [23]. - Alumina: SHFE alumina closed at 2842 yuan/ton, up 0.25% [23]. - Zinc: SHFE zinc closed at 24585 yuan/ton, up 0.53%; LME zinc closed at 3418 dollars/ton, up 0.59% [23]. - Lead: SHFE lead closed at 16740 yuan/ton, up 0.45%; LME lead closed at 1995 dollars/ton, up 0.86% [23]. - Nickel: SHFE nickel closed at 139360 yuan/ton, up 4.51%; LME nickel closed at 18065 dollars/ton, up 2.93% [23]. - Tin: SHFE tin closed at 394700 yuan/ton, up 3.32%; LME tin closed at 50065 dollars/ton, up 1.70% [23]. - Gold: COMEX gold closed at 5107.80 dollars/ounce, up 1.19% [23]. - Silver: SHFE silver closed at 20944.00 yuan/kilogram, up 3.25%; COMEX silver closed at 84.09 dollars/ounce, up 4.35% [23]. - Steel: SHFE rebar closed at 3054 yuan/ton, up 0.07%; SHFE hot - rolled coil closed at 3228 yuan/ton, up 0.25% [23]. - Iron Ore: DCE iron ore closed at 762.5 yuan/ton, up 0.13% [23]. - Coking Coal and Coke: DCE coking coal closed at 1123.5 yuan/ton, up 0.40%; DCE coke closed at 1667.0 yuan/ton, up 0.12% [23]. - Industrial Silicon: GFEX industrial silicon closed at 8370.0 yuan/ton, down 0.06% [23]. - Soybean and Meal: CBOT soybean closed at 1123.5 yuan/ton, up 0.02%; DCE bean meal closed at 2773.0 yuan/ton, up 1.43%; CZCE rapeseed meal closed at 2288.0 yuan/ton, up 1.96% [23]. 2. Industrial Data Perspective - Copper: On February 11, SHFE copper main contract was 102180 yuan/ton, up 620 yuan from the previous day; LME copper 3 - month contract was 13239 dollars/ton, up 139 dollars. LME inventory increased by 3000 tons to 192100 tons [24]. - Nickel: SHFE nickel main contract was 139360 yuan/ton, up 6010 yuan; LME nickel 3 - month contract was 18065 dollars/ton, up 515 dollars. SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 12 tons to 52027 tons [24]. - Zinc: SHFE zinc main contract was 24585 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan; LME zinc was 3418 dollars/ton, up 20 dollars. SHFE zinc warehouse receipts increased by 8100 tons to 42335 tons [27]. - Lead: SHFE lead main contract was 16740 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; LME lead was 1994.5 dollars/ton, up 17 dollars. LME lead inventory increased by 200 tons to 232950 tons [27]. - Aluminum: SHFE aluminum continuous - three contract was 23795 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan; LME aluminum 3 - month contract was 3117 dollars/ton, up 12 dollars. SHFE aluminum warehouse receipts increased by 1050 tons to 167566 tons [27]. - Alumina: SHFE alumina main contract was 2842 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the national alumina spot average price was 2646 yuan/ton, unchanged. SHFE alumina warehouse increased by 11721 tons to 262731 tons [27]. - Tin: SHFE tin main contract was 394700 yuan/ton, up 12700 yuan; LME tin was 50065 dollars/ton, up 835 dollars. SHFE tin warehouse receipts increased by 131 tons to 6516 tons [27]. - Precious Metals: SHFE gold was 1130.4 yuan, unchanged; COMEX gold was 5098.50 dollars/ounce, unchanged. SHFE silver was 20944.00 yuan/kilogram, unchanged; COMEX silver was 83.920 dollars/ounce, unchanged [27]. - Steel and Iron Ore: SHFE rebar main contract was 3054 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; DCE iron ore main contract was 762.5 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan [29]. - Coking Coal and Coke: DCE coking coal main contract was 1123.5 yuan/ton, up 4.5 yuan; DCE coke main contract was 1667.0 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan [29]. - Lithium and Industrial Silicon: The lithium carbonate main contract was 14.69, up 1.10; the industrial silicon main contract was 8370 yuan/ton, down 5.00 yuan [29]. - Soybean and Meal: CBOT soybean main contract was 1123.5, up 0.25; DCE bean meal main contract was 2773, up 39; CZCE rapeseed meal main contract was 2288, up 44 [29].