节前或偏震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock index futures market is expected to remain volatile before the holiday, with the price - rising chain leading the gains. It is advisable to hold a neutral position for the holiday, and the probability of a liquidity tail - risk is relatively low [2][6]. - For stock index options, it is recommended to continue holding call options for defense, which is to protect the systematic risk of the overall position rather than indicating a bearish view [2][6]. - The bond market is supported by the expectation of monetary easing. In the medium - term, the central bank's monetary policy may further strengthen, while in the short - term, the bond market may be volatile as the bond interest rate approaches a critical point [3][7]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures - Market Situation: On Wednesday, the equity market showed a shrinking and volatile trend. The price - rising chain represented by building materials and non - ferrous metals led the gains, while sectors such as media and hardware were weak. The market style switched to some extent. The number of daily limit stocks decreased compared to Tuesday, and trading volume dropped to around 2 trillion, indicating that funds reduced trading frequency before the holiday [2][6]. - Tail - risk Analysis: The previous risks mainly came from commodity fluctuations and the decline of overseas software stocks. Recently, these two risk factors have eased, with the volatility of precious metals and non - ferrous metals decreasing, and U.S. retail investors starting to focus on oversold software stocks. The probability of a liquidity tail - risk is relatively low [2][6]. - Operation Suggestion: Hold IM [6]. 3.2 Stock Index Options - Market Situation: The equity index oscillated and consolidated. The trading volume of each option variety declined again. Compared with the previous two weeks, the trading volume of options this week was relatively stable. The implied volatility rebounded intraday [2][6]. - Operation Suggestion: Continue to hold call options for defense to protect the systematic risk of the overall position [2][6]. 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures - Market Situation: The performance of treasury bond futures was relatively strong, especially for T and TF contracts. The T main contract opened higher in the morning and showed a high - level oscillation throughout the day. The bullish sentiment in the bond market was released, and the expectation of monetary easing may have driven the bond market sentiment [7]. - Supporting Factors: The central bank was active in open - market operations, conducting both 7 - day and 14 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a large amount of 14 - day reverse repurchase, which may ease market concerns about the Spring Festival capital. The central bank emphasized the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy in the Q4 2025 monetary policy implementation report, and the market interpreted it positively. The January price data showed that PPI increased year - on - year while CPI decreased year - on - year and was slightly lower than expected, which may have boosted the bullish sentiment in the bond market [3][7]. - Operation Suggestion: Trend strategy: oscillate. Hedging strategy: pay attention to short - hedging at the low basis. Basis strategy: the basis is expected to be volatile. Curve strategy: appropriately pay attention to the convergence of the 30Y - 10Y spread. For cross - period roll - over, the cross - period spread may have a downward momentum, and also pay attention to the change of the roll - over window period due to the Spring Festival [7].