工业硅：盘面波幅减少，多晶硅：部分仓单注销，关注情绪影响

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The industrial silicon futures market shows that the Si2605 closing price is 8,375 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 75 yuan compared to T - 1, 440 yuan compared to T - 5, and 340 yuan compared to T - 22. The volume is 188,888 hands, a decrease of 11,212 hands from T - 1, 67,353 hands from T - 5, and 256,687 hands from T - 22. The holding volume is 303,387 hands, an increase of 8,477 hands from T - 1, 68,587 hands from T - 5, and 63,683 hands from T - 22 [1]. - The polysilicon futures market has a PS2605 closing price of 48,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 420 yuan from T - 1 and 1,050 yuan from T - 5. The volume is 3,991 hands, a decrease of 715 hands from T - 1 and 14,306 hands from T - 5. The holding volume is 38,617 hands, an increase of 270 hands from T - 1 and 206 hands from T - 5 [1]. - The industrial silicon spot price has different premiums and discounts. For example, the premium of industrial silicon spot (against East China Si5530) is +925 yuan, +75 yuan compared to T - 1, +390 yuan compared to T - 5, and +390 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. - The polysilicon spot premium (against N - type re - investment) is +4570 yuan, a decrease of 230 yuan from T - 1, an increase of 2,015 yuan from T - 5, and a decrease of 1,735 yuan from T - 22 [1]. - The profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) is - 2761.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan from T - 1, 880 yuan from T - 5, and 835 yuan from T - 22. The profit of silicon plants in Yunnan (new standard 553) is - 5641 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan from T - 1, 880 yuan from T - 5, and 805 yuan from T - 22 [1]. - The industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 56.2 million tons, an increase of 0.8 million tons compared to T - 5 and 1 million tons compared to T - 22. The enterprise inventory (sample enterprises) is 20.6 million tons, a decrease of 0.30 million tons compared to T - 5 and an increase of 0.4 million tons compared to T - 22. The industry inventory (social inventory + enterprise inventory) is 76.8 million tons, an increase of 0.50 million tons compared to T - 5 and 1.36 million tons compared to T - 22. The futures warehouse receipt inventory is 9.1 million tons, an increase of 0.7 million tons compared to T - 1, 1.2 million tons compared to T - 5, and 3.7 million tons compared to T - 22 [1]. - The polysilicon manufacturer inventory is 34.1 million tons, an increase of 0.8 million tons compared to T - 5 and 3.9 million tons compared to T - 22 [1]. - The price of polysilicon - N - type re - investment material is 53650 yuan/ton, with no change compared to T - 1, an increase of 150 yuan compared to T - 5, and a decrease of 1350 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. - The profit of polysilicon enterprises is 9.3 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.4 yuan from T - 1, 0.5 yuan from T - 5, and a decrease of 0.7 yuan from T - 22 [1]. - The price of DMC in the organic silicon industry is 13900 yuan/ton, with no change compared to T - 1, T - 5, and an increase of 50 yuan compared to T - 22. The profit of DMC enterprises is 1941 yuan/ton, with no change compared to T - 1, a decrease of 10 yuan compared to T - 5, and an increase of 131 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. - The price of ADC12 in the aluminum alloy industry is 23650 yuan/ton, with no change compared to T - 1, a decrease of 150 yuan compared to T - 5, and a decrease of 300 yuan compared to T - 22. The profit of recycled aluminum enterprises is 390 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan compared to T - 1, 350 yuan compared to T - 5, and 780 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. - India's Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) will receive a total allocation of 329.147 billion rupees in the 2026 - 27 fiscal year, a 24% year - on - year increase. The allocation for the photovoltaic industry will increase by 32% year - on - year to 305.394 billion rupees, and the National Green Hydrogen Program will receive 6 billion rupees in allocation. Among the photovoltaic industry allocations, 220 billion rupees will be used for the "PM Surya Ghar Muft Bijli Yojana" [3]. - The trend strength of industrial silicon is 1, and that of polysilicon is 0. The trend strength ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: Industrial silicon and polysilicon futures have different price, volume, and holding volume changes over different time periods [1]. - Basis: The basis of industrial silicon and polysilicon shows different premium and discount situations [1]. - Price: The prices of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and related products in the photovoltaic, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy industries have different changes over different time periods [1]. - Profit: The profits of silicon plants, polysilicon enterprises, DMC enterprises, and recycled aluminum enterprises also change over different time periods [1]. - Inventory: The inventories of industrial silicon (including social, enterprise, and warehouse receipt inventories) and polysilicon manufacturers have different changes over different time periods [1]. - Raw Material Cost: The prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes have different changes over different time periods [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - India's 2026 - 27 fiscal year budget allocates funds to the new energy and renewable energy sector, with significant increases in the photovoltaic industry and an allocation for the National Green Hydrogen Program [3]. 3. Trend Strength - The trend strength of industrial silicon is 1, and that of polysilicon is 0, indicating different market outlooks [3].