2026年2月12日申万期货品种策略日报-黄金白银-20260212

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Precious metals are in a high - level oscillation. After the release of better - than - expected US non - farm payroll data in January, the expectation of interest rate cuts cooled down, causing precious metals to plunge. However, the US employment market still needs interest rate cuts due to its weakness. In the long run, factors such as de - dollarization, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases remain supportive. After market adjustment and the accumulation of new positive factors, gold is expected to return to a steady upward channel. Due to silver's greater volatility and the relatively low gold - silver ratio, investors are advised to wait and see [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Price and Volume: For gold futures, the closing prices of沪金2606 and沪金2604 on the previous day were 1133.00 and 1130.400 respectively, with increases of 9.04 and 9.180, and increases of 0.80% and 0.82%. Their trading volumes were 44843 and 217933, and their positions were 89881 and 160510. For silver futures, the closing prices of沪银2606 and沪银2604 on the previous day were 20505 and 20944 respectively, with increases of 794 and 660, and increases of 4.03% and 3.25%. Their trading volumes were 266728 and 504079, and their positions were 134806 and 211818 [2] Spot Market - Price and Change: The closing price of Shanghai Gold T + D on the previous day was 1124.47, an increase of 7.07 or 0.63%. The closing price of London gold was 5084.75, an increase of 57.09 or 1.14%. The closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D was 19899, an increase of 631 or 3.27%. The closing price of London silver was 84.22, an increase of 3.46 or 4.29% [2] Inventory - Change: The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold remained unchanged at 105,072 kilograms. The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange silver increased by 18734 kilograms to 342,102 kilograms. The COMEX gold inventory decreased by 494765 ounces to 34,735,045 ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 4704222 ounces to 381,568,803 ounces [2] Related Derivatives - Change: The SPDR gold ETF position increased by 2 tons to 1,081 tons. The SLV silver ETF position increased by 20 tons to 16,236 tons. The net position of CFTC speculators in gold decreased by 39792 to 165,604, and the net position in silver increased by 2174 to 25,877 [2] Macroeconomic News - US Employment Data: In January, the US seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls were 130,000, far exceeding the expected 70,000. The unemployment rate was 4.3%, lower than the expected 4.4%. The monthly rate of average hourly wages was 0.4%, higher than the expected 0.3%. The annual rate of average hourly wages was 3.7%, higher than the expected 3.6%. The November and December non - farm payrolls were revised downward, with a total reduction of 17,000 compared to the previous figures [3] - Political Events: The US House of Representatives passed a bill to end Trump's tariffs on Canada, highlighting Trump's weakening control over the House. The US Department of Defense is preparing to deploy a second aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East, and Trump said that no decision was made in the meeting with Netanyahu except for continuing negotiations with Iran [3][4]