不锈钢：二月检修减产频出，成本支撑重心上移：镍：印尼消息扰动再现，关注投机属性风险

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the nickel and stainless - steel markets. For nickel, there are new disturbances from Indonesia, and attention should be paid to speculative risks. For stainless steel, there are frequent maintenance and production cuts in February, and the cost support center has shifted upward [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 139,360, with a change of 6,010 compared to T - 1. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 14,040, with a change of 300 compared to T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 518,625, and that of the stainless - steel main contract is 263,049 [1] - Industrial Chain Data: The price of 1 imported nickel is 137,750, with a change of 3,750 compared to T - 1. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 1,043, with a change of 2 compared to T - 1. The price of 304/2B roll - rough edge (Wuxi) is 14,100, with no change compared to T - 1 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform for projects producing "restricted products" such as Nickel matte, MHP, FeNi, and NPI [1] - The Indonesian government will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026, and will start treating cobalt as an independent commodity and levy royalties [2] - Some Indonesian enterprises face potential fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal occupation of forest land, and are negotiating with the government [2] - The KPPU found monopoly behavior in the port warehousing and logistics of the IMIP park in Indonesia, and the park is negotiating with the KPPU [3] - The Indonesian Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry has started approving the 2026 mining work plan and budget (RKAB) [3] - The Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine business in Guatemala in a few months [3] - The approved nickel ore production quota in 2026 is between 2.6 billion and 2.7 billion tons, and PT WBN has received a preliminary notice to submit a RKAB [4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [5]