产业永续债分析框架和机会挖掘

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The issuance of industrial perpetual bonds aims to reduce corporate leverage, with two peaks in issuance and net financing. In 2026, the proportion of the perpetual bond variety spread in the total spread is 50.4%. It is recommended to focus on the opportunity of exploring the variety spread of industrial perpetual bonds. Two strategies are recommended for industry allocation and investment: the coupon strategy for coal and steel industry entities with a remaining term of less than 2 years, and the duration strategy for central and state-owned enterprises in public utilities and transportation sectors with a term of around 5 years [4][28][29]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Industrial Perpetual Bonds: Tool Characteristics, Issuance, and Outstanding Features - Issuance and Net Financing Peaks: There were two peaks in the issuance and net financing of industrial perpetual bonds. From 2018 - 2020, the implementation of relevant policies led to an annual net financing scale of about 400 billion yuan. From 2023 to the present, due to the debt - reduction needs of some central and state - owned enterprises and narrowing spreads, the annual net financing scale is between 200 - 300 billion yuan, and the issuance scale reached a new high in 2025 [4][7]. - Issuance Term Changes: The proportion of the 5 + N term has increased in recent years. The change in issuance terms can be divided into three stages: 3 + N was the dominant term from 2018 - 2020, 2 + N's proportion increased significantly from 2021 - 2023, and the issuance duration has lengthened since 2024 [4][8]. - Industry Distribution: Industrial perpetual bonds are mainly concentrated in industries with high debt and a high proportion of central and state - owned enterprises. As of February 6, the top five industries in terms of issuance scale are public utilities, building decoration, transportation, coal, and petroleum and petrochemicals, with a combined issuance amount of 67% [8]. - Outstanding Scale and Rating: As of February 9, the outstanding scale of industrial perpetual bonds is 2.8018 trillion yuan, with AAA - rated entities accounting for 93.4%. The yield curve of industrial perpetual bonds is steeper than that of ordinary bonds [11]. 3.2 Industrial Perpetual Bonds: Clause Game - Playing between Debt - like and Equity - like Features - Equity - like Clauses: The constraints of equity - like clauses mainly come from accounting standards. Since 2023, the proportion of perpetual bonds with sub - clauses has been over 60% [18]. - Debt - like Clauses: Debt - like clauses are designed to protect investors' interests. Most industrial perpetual bonds have an upward - floating basis point of 300BP, and the interest rate jump - up clause has strong punitive power in the current low - interest - rate environment [19]. - Reasons for Becoming "True Perpetual": There are two main situations: insufficient punitive clauses leading to weak redemption willingness of the issuer, and deterioration of the enterprise's fundamentals resulting in weak redemption ability. Attention should be paid to the issuer's qualifications [19]. 3.3 Industrial Perpetual Bonds: Pricing Anchor and Mining Opportunities - Variety Spread Advantage: The proportion of the variety spread of industrial perpetual bonds in the total spread is at a multi - year high, and industrial perpetual bonds are more resistant to decline than ordinary industrial bonds. It is recommended to focus on the opportunity of exploring the variety spread [28]. - Investment Strategies: Two strategies are recommended. The coupon strategy focuses on coal and steel industry entities with a remaining term of less than 2 years, mainly local state - owned enterprises with high levels and large asset sizes. The duration strategy recommends central and state - owned enterprises in public utilities and transportation sectors with a term of around 5 years [29].