西部证券晨会纪要-20260212

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - January CPI growth rate declined to 0.2% year-on-year, down from 0.8% in the previous month, influenced by the timing of the Spring Festival and a drop in vegetable prices [6][7] - Core CPI also fell, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, lower than previous months [7] - PPI showed a month-on-month increase of 0.4% and a year-on-year decline of 1.4%, indicating a narrowing of the decline [7] Group 2: Domestic Policy Developments - The 2026 local two sessions emphasized the importance of industry policy, focusing on cultivating new productive forces tailored to local resources [9][10] - Four regional development lines were identified: Eastern provinces focusing on original innovation, Central provinces on industrial upgrades, Western provinces on resource transformation, and Northeast regions on upgrading traditional industries [10][11] - The policy framework promotes a three-dimensional approach to traditional industry upgrades, emerging industry growth, and future industry planning [10][11] Group 3: Company Analysis - Yum China (9987.HK) - In 2025, Yum China achieved revenues of $11.8 billion and a net profit of $929 million, with same-store sales growth of 1% [14][16] - The company plans to return $4.5 billion to shareholders from 2024 to 2026, with a 21% increase in quarterly dividends to $0.29 [15][16] - The stock is rated as a "buy" with projected net profits of $1 billion and $1.1 billion for 2026 and 2027, respectively, reflecting a PE ratio of 20 and 18 times [16] Group 4: North Exchange Insights - The North Exchange saw a trading volume of 19.33 billion yuan on February 10, with the North Exchange 50 index closing at 1532.17, down 0.61% [18][20] - AI applications and commercial aerospace are highlighted as key investment themes, with a focus on companies with technological barriers and high growth potential [20] - The market is expected to experience cautious trading as the Spring Festival approaches, but mid-term trends in technology sectors remain positive [20]