网易云音乐 (9899 HK) 积极布局会员扩容与价值提升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 239.40 [2][9][12] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 7.759 billion for 2025, a year-over-year decrease of 2.4%, which was slightly below Bloomberg's expectation of RMB 7.9 billion. However, the adjusted net profit was RMB 2.860 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 68.2% [6][8] - The company plans to increase customer acquisition efforts in 2026, focusing on expanding its paid user base and improving gross margins through enhanced operational efficiency [6][7] - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2026 and 2027 has been revised down to RMB 22.39 billion and RMB 25.20 billion, respectively, reflecting a 16% reduction due to the impact of membership structure on ARPU and increased marketing investments [9][12] Financial Performance - The company’s gross margin increased by 2 percentage points to 35.7% in 2025, primarily due to a decrease in revenue sharing from social entertainment and effective cost control in content licensing [8] - The adjusted net profit for 2025 was RMB 28.60 billion, which exceeded Bloomberg's expectation of RMB 20 billion when excluding a one-time tax credit of RMB 7.47 billion [8][9] - The company’s revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: RMB 8.619 billion in 2026, RMB 9.339 billion in 2027, and RMB 10.038 billion in 2028, with respective growth rates of 11.08%, 8.35%, and 7.48% [5][12] Valuation Metrics - The adjusted EPS for 2026 is projected to be RMB 10.27, with a PE ratio of 15.83, and the adjusted ROE is expected to be 16.07% [5][12] - The target price of HKD 239.40 is based on a PE of 20.71x for the adjusted net profit in 2026, aligning with the average expectations of comparable companies [9][12][14]