华宝期货晨报铝锭-20260212

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products is expected to move in a range-bound manner, and attention should be paid to macro policies and downstream demand [4] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - The production enterprises of short - process construction steel in the Yunnan - Guizhou region will stop production and overhaul during the Spring Festival, with an estimated impact on the total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have different production suspension arrangements, with a daily impact on output of about 16,200 tons [3][4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% month - on - month and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [4] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center of gravity continues to move down. Winter storage is sluggish this year, providing weak support for prices [4] Aluminum Ingots - Macroscopically, the number of non - farm employees increased by 1.3 million last month, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%. The strong employment data made traders lower their expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut this year [3] - Newly invested electrolytic aluminum projects at home and abroad are ramping up production, pushing up the daily output. As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream processing enterprises are on holiday, the operating rate is declining, and the demand is weakening [4] - The comprehensive operating rate of aluminum processing last week was 57.9%, a 1.5 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. There are significant differences among different sectors. The operating rates of aluminum plate and strip, aluminum foil, aluminum cable, and aluminum profile have different trends [4] - The social inventory of aluminum ingots has been accumulating for about two months before the Spring Festival. As of February 9, it reached 857,000 tons, a 40,000 - ton increase from the previous Monday. It is expected that the downstream demand will not improve significantly before the Spring Festival [4] Non - ferrous Metals - The short - term market sentiment has eased to some extent. The linkage between precious metals and non - ferrous sectors is still strong, and the market trading sentiment is cautious. The price is expected to be range - bound in the short term [5] - Attention should be paid to changes in macro expectations, the development of geopolitical crises, the resumption of production at the mine end, and the release of consumption [5]