华宝期货碳酸锂晨报-20260212

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The market expectation for lithium carbonate is rising, and the futures market is running strongly. It is recommended to hold a light position and wait and see before the Spring Festival. [2][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The price of the main contract of lithium carbonate futures rose significantly to 150,260 yuan/ton. The long - short ratio of net capital positions decreased slightly, and the daily inventory of lithium carbonate on the GZFE decreased by 10 lots to 35,527 lots. [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of SMM electric carbon is 138,000 yuan/ton, and the price difference between electric carbon and industrial carbon is 3,500 yuan/ton. Although the futures market is strong, the spot market sentiment is cautious. Most enterprises are in a wait - and - see state with low psychological price expectations, and the market inquiry and trading volume are still light. [3] 3.3 Supply Side - Last week, raw material prices in the raw material market generally declined. The SMM total weekly operating rate was 47.29% (-2.21%), and the operating rates of all processes except lithium mica decreased. The SMM weekly total output was 20,744 tons (-825 tons). [4] 3.4 Demand Side - Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased slightly, and inventory was destocked. As of January 18, the penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales increased to 55.6%. In January, the total production of power and energy storage batteries in China was 168.0 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 16.7% and a year - on - year increase of 55.9%; the sales volume was 148.8 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 25.4% and a year - on - year increase of 85.1%. Energy storage cells performed strongly with high production and sales and low inventory. [4] 3.5 Inventory Side - According to SMM data, the social inventory of four sample areas increased by 3.73% week - on - week to 43,050 tons, the sample weekly inventory decreased by 2,019 tons to 105,463 tons, the total inventory days increased to 30 days, and the downstream inventory days increased to 11.8 days (a week - on - week increase of 9.26%), showing passive inventory accumulation, structural differentiation, and poor transmission. [4] 3.6 Macro Policy - On the demand side, multiple incentives such as car trade - in subsidies and battery export tax rebates stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro - liquidity. On the supply side, on January 15, the National Development and Reform Commission proposed to introduce management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new energy vehicle power batteries to improve recycling thresholds and eliminate backward production capacity, which will optimize the domestic supply structure in the long term and raise the cost support center. Industrial planning, including the Qinghai Salt Lake industry plan, the key points of energy storage in the 15th Five - Year Plan, and a series of arrangements in the Central Economic Work Conference, form synergistic benefits to support long - term supply - demand balance. The central bank's structural interest rate cut indirectly strengthens the medium - and long - term macro - favorable atmosphere. [5]