冠通期货资讯早间报-20260212

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively analyzes the overnight performance of the futures market, important macro - economic news, and the trends in various financial markets. It shows that international commodity futures generally rose, and there were significant changes in the economic data and policies of different countries, which will have an impact on the global financial market. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Market Trends - International precious metal futures generally closed higher, with COMEX gold futures up 1.53% at $5107.80 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 4.60% at $84.08 per ounce [4][41]. - U.S. oil and Brent oil futures rose, with the U.S. oil main contract up 1.45% at $64.89 per barrel and the Brent oil main contract up 1.15% at $69.60 per barrel [5][41]. - London base metals all rose, with LME nickel up 3.29% at $18065.0 per ton, LME tin up 1.59% at $50065.0 per ton, etc. [5][41]. - Domestic futures contracts showed mixed results, with fuel oil up over 2%, and some contracts like butadiene rubber down over 1% [5]. Important Information Macroeconomic Information - In January 2026, China's CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose 0.8% year - on - year. PPI rose 0.4% month - on - month and fell 1.4% year - on - year [8]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange took regulatory measures against abnormal trading accounts [8]. - Most economists believe that the Fed may set overly loose monetary policy, and many expect a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the end of June [8]. - After the release of the U.S. non - farm payrolls report, the probability of a Fed rate cut before April decreased, and the probability of no rate cut in June increased [9]. - The U.S. non - farm employment growth accelerated in January, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%, which may allow the Fed to keep rates unchanged [9]. - The U.S. adjusted the non - farm employment data for November and December 2025 [11]. - The U.S. is preparing for a possible attack on Iran [11]. Energy and Chemical Futures - As of February 11, 2026, China's methanol port inventory increased by 2.12 million tons, with inventory in East China increasing and that in South China decreasing [13]. - As of February 9, 2026, the total refined oil inventory in the UAE's Fujairah Port decreased by 1.791 million barrels [13]. - India may buy more U.S. and Venezuelan crude oil [14]. - OPEC maintained its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 and 2027, and OPEC +'s oil production decreased in January [14]. - U.S. crude oil exports decreased, commercial crude oil inventory increased, and strategic petroleum reserve inventory decreased in the week of February 6 [14]. Metal Futures - Factors supporting silver prices in 2025 remain stable in 2026 [17]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the hedging position limits for silver contracts [17][39]. - Congo (Kinshasa)'s copper exports increased by nearly 10% in 2025 [17]. - Indonesia may cut the production quota of the world's largest nickel mine [17][42]. - CME is exploring the launch of the first rare - earth futures contract [18][44]. Black - Series Futures - As of the week of February 11, the production of key steel products decreased, and the inventory increased [20][21]. - Mongolia's ETT company's coking coal auction was successful [21]. Agricultural Futures - Argentina's oilseed and cotton processing federation will hold a national strike [23]. - Brazil's soybean, soybean meal, and corn exports in February are expected to increase [23][24]. - Indonesia's palm oil price is expected to fluctuate and then decline, and its production is expected to increase [23]. Financial Market Finance - A - shares showed a narrow - range consolidation, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.09%, and some sectors performed well while some hot - topic sectors adjusted [27]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.31%, and the southbound capital had a net purchase [27]. - The pre - Spring Festival dividends of 235 listed companies in 2026 exceeded those in 2025 [27]. - The capital market regulatory authorities maintained a high - pressure stance, and many entities received fines [27]. - The Hong Kong stock new - share market had a "zero - break - issue" phenomenon [28]. - MSCI adjusted its China index, including new stocks and removing some [28]. - NetEase's Q4 2025 results were below market expectations [30]. Industry - The State Council aims to build a unified national power market system by 2035 [31]. - Central enterprises are required to strengthen investment in AI - related fields [31]. - In January, China's automobile production and sales had different trends, and new - energy vehicle exports increased significantly [31]. - The scale of bank wealth management products decreased in January [31]. - The passenger volume and flight volume between China and Japan during the Spring Festival decreased [32]. Overseas - Trump met with Netanyahu and said reaching an agreement with Iran was the "preferred" option [34]. - The U.S. budget deficit decreased in the first four months of the fiscal year, but the 10 - year deficit forecast increased [34]. - Trump may withdraw from the USMCA [34]. - Trump may support the coal industry [34]. - The European Parliament approved a financial aid package for Ukraine [35]. International Stock Markets - U.S. stocks closed slightly lower, affected by the non - farm payrolls data [36][37]. - European stocks had mixed results, influenced by corporate earnings and political factors [37]. - The South Korean stock market rose, and LG Electronics had a significant increase [37]. - Kraft Heinz suspended its spin - off plan, and its 2026 sales are expected to decline [37]. - Heineken plans to lay off employees and set a profit - growth target [38]. - McDonald's Q4 results exceeded analysts' expectations [38]. Commodities - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the silver hedging position limits [39]. - Precious metal futures rose, supported by supply shortages and investment demand [40][41]. - Oil prices rose due to concerns about U.S. - Iran tensions [40][41]. - Base metals rose [40][41]. - Indonesia plans to cut nickel production quotas [42]. - OPEC maintained its oil supply and demand forecast, and OPEC +'s production decreased [42]. - Bank of China adjusted the minimum purchase amount of its gold accumulation product [43]. - The global silver market is expected to have a structural shortage in 2026 [43]. - CME is exploring the launch of rare - earth futures [44]. Bonds - The inter - bank bond market was generally warm, and the central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations [46]. - The Ministry of Finance issued RMB bonds in Hong Kong [46]. - U.S. Treasury yields rose [46]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar rose, and the RMB central parity rate was adjusted up [47]. - The U.S. dollar index rose slightly, and non - U.S. currencies had mixed results [47]. Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Multiple economic data will be released, including Japan's domestic corporate goods price index, the UK's GDP, and the U.S.'s initial jobless claims [50]. - Many events will occur, such as the release of the IEA's monthly oil market report and speeches by central bank officials [52].