地缘持续扰动，铂钯偏强震荡

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views - Geopolitical risks continue to disrupt, causing platinum and palladium to oscillate strongly. As of February 11, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 551.15 yuan/gram, up 1.91%, and the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 439.1 yuan/gram, down 1.68% [1] - In the short - term, the market is in a stage of shock consolidation, and in the long - term, the weakening trend of the US dollar credit is conducive to the release of long - term price elasticity. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on platinum and short on palladium. The medium - and long - term price is expected to be oscillating strongly [2] - The supply of palladium is uncertain, the spot is in short supply, and although there is structural pressure on the demand side, the price has clear support below. The medium - and long - term price is expected to be oscillating strongly [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Platinum - Main Logic: In the short - term, sanctions on Russian platinum - group metals, geopolitical issues between the US and Iran, and fluctuations in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations disrupt the market, and pre - holiday trading is cautious. In the long - term, the US is in an interest - rate cut channel, and the weakening of the US dollar credit is conducive to price elasticity. The platinum - palladium ratio has fallen to a low - level range this week [2] - Outlook: Oscillating strongly. The supply - demand fundamentals are healthy, and the macro - expectations are positive [2] Palladium - Main Logic: Supply is uncertain due to US investigations on Russian palladium imports and potential European sanctions. The palladium lease rate has risen, and the spot shortage supports the price. There is structural pressure on the demand side. Although long - term supply and demand tend to be loose, the short - term spot shortage and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations support the price [3] - Outlook: Oscillating strongly. The spot shortage and the improving macro - environment support the price [3] Index - Special Index: The commodity index was 2390.85, up 0.32%; the commodity 20 index was 2729.71, up 0.27%; the industrial products index was 2290.96, up 0.41% [49] - Plate Index: The non - ferrous metal index on February 11, 2026, had a daily increase of 0.24%, a 5 - day decrease of 0.08%, a 1 - month decrease of 5.51%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.32%. The PPI commodity index was 1407.45, up 0.18% [50]