海外市场点评：1月非农：超预期下的矛盾信号

Labor Market Insights - January non-farm payrolls increased by 130,000, exceeding expectations, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%[4] - The month-on-month wage growth accelerated to 0.4%, indicating a potentially improving labor market[4] Economic Recovery Signals - The manufacturing PMI for January also showed an unexpected rise, suggesting steady economic recovery in the U.S.[4] - However, the non-farm data revisions indicate a downward adjustment of nearly 900,000 jobs for the past year, highlighting potential overestimation risks in the labor market[4] Structural Employment Concerns - Job growth in January was predominantly concentrated in the healthcare and social assistance sectors, with minimal contributions from other industries[4] - Marginal improvements were noted in manufacturing and construction employment, which are positive signs but insufficient for overall productivity enhancement[4] Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Following the positive non-farm data, expectations for interest rate cuts in the first half of the year significantly decreased, leading to a short-term rebound in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields[4] - Upcoming data releases, particularly January's CPI and quarterly GDP, may further influence market sentiment and interest rate expectations[4] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include significant changes in U.S. trade policies, unexpected tariff impacts, and geopolitical factors that could increase global asset volatility[5]