原油：地缘风险带动偏强，短期观望

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report has a "Neutral" rating for the short - term, with the view that geopolitical risks are driving the market to be "relatively strong", and suggests short - term observation [1] 2. Core Views - Geopolitical risks are driving the crude oil market to be relatively strong, and short - term observation is recommended [1] - The trend strength of crude oil is 0, indicating a neutral stance [11] 3. Summary by Category 3.1 International Crude Oil Prices - NYMEX WTI March crude oil futures rose $0.67, or 1.05%, to $64.63 per barrel. ICE Brent crude futures contract 04 rose $0.60, or 0.87%, to $69.40 per barrel. SC2604 crude oil futures rose $3.90, or 0.82%, to $479.80 per barrel [1] 3.2 Crude Oil Spread Analysis - General Spread Changes: The spreads of different types of crude oil showed various trends. Some spreads deteriorated due to factors such as negative refining value and price disadvantages, while others improved. For example, the spread of Forties deteriorated significantly with a - $1.82 change compared to January, mainly due to a sharp increase in the crude price disadvantage relative to WTI MEH [2] - Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage: The spreads of several alternative crude oils improved. Napo's spread improved significantly with a $4.67 change compared to January, mainly due to an extremely deep price discount [4] - North - West European Crude Oil Arbitrage: The spreads of various alternative crude oils improved, and the arbitrage windows became more favorable. For example, the spread of Saharan Blend widened significantly with a $3.08 change compared to January, driven by refining value and significant price advantages [5] - Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage: The spreads of some alternative crude oils improved (negative values decreased), but some windows remained deeply closed. For example, the spread of Azeri Light improved significantly with a $2.27 change compared to January due to the narrowing of Urals' price advantage [6][7] - Chinese Crude Oil Arbitrage: The spreads of different alternative crude oils had different trends. Napo's spread widened significantly with a $5.31 change compared to January, mainly due to a large price discount relative to Dubai [7] 3.3 Key Market News - The U.S. EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending February 6 was 853 million barrels, higher than the expected 79.3 million barrels and the previous value of - 345.5 million barrels. The EIA crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 107.1 million barrels, compared to the previous value of - 74.3 million barrels [9] - The U.S. Energy Secretary expects a significant increase in Venezuela's oil, gas, and electricity production this year. Morgan Stanley expects Venezuela's oil production to reach 2 million barrels per day in the coming years [10] - The U.S. President Trump mentioned the negotiation with Iran, and Iran's top security official said that Iran is consulting with the U.S. to determine the next round of negotiation time [10]