期货市场交易指引2026年02月12日-20260212

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers trading suggestions for various futures products, such as "long - term bullish, buy on dips" for stock index futures, "range trading" for many commodities like copper, tin, etc. [1] Core Views - The report provides trading strategies and market analysis for different futures sectors, including macro - finance, black building materials, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, cotton - textile industry chain, and agricultural livestock. It takes into account factors such as supply - demand relationships, macroeconomic data, and geopolitical events to form trading suggestions. [1] Summary by Directory Macro - Finance - Stock Index: Long - term bullish, buy on dips. Before the holiday, it may oscillate, and it is advisable to hold positions lightly with a defensive approach. Factors include US employment data, market expectations of interest rate cuts, and domestic policies on AI and central enterprise investment. [1][5] - Treasury Bonds: Oscillate. The overall price level shows a mild recovery, but the bond market reacts little to price data. After the holiday, there are uncertainties regarding important meetings and bond supply, so treasury bonds may oscillate. [5] Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: Short - term trading. The coal market shows short - term fluctuations. Although prices have increased slightly, the sustainability of the price increase is limited due to factors such as weak downstream demand and early shutdown of private coal mines. [7][8] - Rebar: Range trading. The rebar futures price is at a relatively low static valuation. In the short term, it may oscillate, and it is recommended to trade with a light position before the holiday. [8] - Glass: Buy on dips. Although there are rumors in the industry and the glass price has upward pressure, the futures price has fallen to a relatively low level again, and it is expected to oscillate upward. [9][10] Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: High - level oscillation. General traders are advised to reduce trading positions before the holiday, while hedgers are advised to increase the hedging coverage rate. The copper market is affected by macro factors, and although there is a risk of a supply shortage, the inventory is increasing. [11] - Aluminum: High - level oscillation. It is recommended to strengthen observation. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is expected to increase, while the downstream demand is weakening. [13] - Nickel: Oscillate. It is recommended to observe. Although the nickel price has risen due to news of quota cuts in Indonesia, the current market has fully priced in the information, and the fundamentals are weak. [15] - Tin: Range trading. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream demand is in a state of rigid procurement. It is expected to continue to oscillate. [16][17] - Silver: Range trading. The short - term price is in an adjustment state, and the medium - term price center has moved up. It is recommended to conduct range trading. [17] - Gold: Range trading. Similar to silver, the short - term price is in an adjustment state, and the medium - term price center has moved up. It is recommended to conduct range trading. [17][18] - Lithium Carbonate: Range oscillation. The supply and demand are in a state of game, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate. [18] Energy Chemicals - PVC: Range trading. The current supply - demand situation is weak, but there are opportunities for industrial upgrading in the long term. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up. [19][20] - Caustic Soda: Temporarily observe. The demand is weak, and the supply pressure is large. There may be support in the medium term if the market atmosphere of related commodities improves. [20] - Styrene: Range trading. It rebounds due to factors such as export increase and device maintenance, but the valuation is high. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up. [22] - Rubber: Range trading. Before the holiday, the market has both positive and negative factors, and the rubber price is expected to oscillate upward. [22] - Urea: Range trading. The supply is increasing, the demand is supported by compound fertilizer enterprises, and the price is expected to oscillate within a certain range. [23] - Methanol: Range trading. The supply in the inland area is decreasing, the downstream demand is weak, and the price in some areas is strong due to geopolitical and port factors. [24] - Polyolefins: Weak oscillation. The downstream demand is weakening before the holiday, the supply pressure is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. [25][26][27] - Soda Ash: Temporarily observe. The supply is in a state of over - supply, but the cost support is strong, and it is recommended to leave the market temporarily. [27] Cotton - Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: Oscillate and adjust. The global cotton supply and demand situation is changing, and the long - term expectation is optimistic, but it is recommended to be cautious in the short term. [28] - Apple: Oscillate. The overall market in the production area is stable, and the trading volume of different grades of apples varies. [28] - Red Dates: Oscillate. The purchase price of Xinjiang grey dates in the 2025 production season varies by region, and the raw material purchase adheres to the principle of high - quality and high - price. [30] Agricultural Livestock - Pigs: Build a bottom through oscillation. Partially close short positions before the Spring Festival, and adopt a strategy of shorting on rebounds. The supply is increasing, and the price is under pressure, but there are also factors such as secondary fattening and frozen product storage that may support the price. [30] - Eggs: Rebound from a low level. Before the holiday, the trading volume on the futures market decreases, and the price fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to be cautious about shorting, and hold positions lightly during the holiday. The supply of eggs is sufficient, and the demand is weakening. [32] - Corn: The upward space is limited. Be cautious about chasing up in the short term, and grain - holding entities can wait for the price to rebound and conduct hedging. The supply - demand pattern of corn in the 2025/2026 season is relatively loose. [32][34] - Soybean Meal: Oscillate at a low level. Pay attention to the support level of 2700 yuan/ton for the M2605 contract, and short on rebounds. The market is affected by factors such as the US - South American soybean situation and domestic demand. [34] - Oils and Fats: High - level oscillation. It is recommended to buy on dips, and pay attention to position risks before the holiday. The fundamentals of the three major oils and fats are mixed, with different performances for each variety. [33][35][40]