天然橡胶日度策略报告-20260212

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Tuesday, commodities stopped falling and rebounded, and rubber futures prices followed the upward trend. During the week before the Spring Festival holiday, capital re - allocation led to wide - range market fluctuations. The concentrated re - allocation of long - position funds in the metal sector, along with liquidity and leverage effects, triggered a systematic adjustment in commodities. Rubber futures prices oscillated sharply near the previous high. Economic data showed weakness, and the market's expectation of interest rate cuts increased. The average weekly price of Shanghai full - latex was 16,030 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 60; the average weekly price of 20 - grade Thai standard rubber in the Qingdao market was 1,950 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 6; the average weekly price of 20 - grade Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao market was 15,168 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 52. Overseas production areas entered the seasonal production - reduction season, with strong willingness of factories to purchase at higher prices, and raw material prices continued to rise, providing strong cost support. [4] - As of February 1, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.281 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 9,000 tons, an increase of 0.7%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber in China was 853,000 tons, an increase of 0.7%. The total social inventory of light - colored rubber in China was 428,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%. The total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in the Qingdao area was 591,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,200 tons, an increase of 1.23%. The bonded area inventory was 97,600 tons, an increase of 3.34%; the general trade inventory was 494,100 tons, an increase of 0.82%. China's natural rubber inventory increased, and the inventory in Qingdao increased due to the arrival volume. The inbound volume increased by 6.7% month - on - month. Vietnamese rubber tended to accumulate inventory, while Yunnan generally continued the trend of inventory reduction. [4] - In February, before the Spring Festival, the volatility of the commodity market increased significantly. In terms of supply and demand fundamentals, the current supply of rubber in the origin is stable, and raw material prices are stable with a slight upward trend. The Hainan production area in China has stopped tapping, and the enthusiasm of factories to purchase rubber is limited. The high - yield tapping season overseas exerts pressure on supply, and the raw material prices in Thailand rebounded slightly after the festival. It is the off - season for downstream demand. Weak terminal demand and sufficient supply lead to an increase in finished product inventory. The natural rubber spot inventory continues the seasonal accumulation, exerting pressure on the spot market. In the long - term, the pattern of oversupply is expected to gradually improve as production reaches its peak. [4] - Industrial products are undergoing adjustments. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see for rubber on a single - side basis. The macro - sentiment is prone to fluctuations, and it is advisable to avoid chasing the high. The support level of the RU main contract is 15,700 - 15,800, and the pressure level is 16,100 - 16,400; the support level of the NR main contract is 12,800 - 13,000, and the pressure level is 13,420 - 13,800. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rubber Variety Viewpoint Summary - The recommended strategy for rubber is to buy on dips. The main logic is that the domestic spot inventory continues to accumulate slightly, overseas supply has no obvious fluctuations, the spot price is firm, and the macro - sentiment boosts the commodity market. The support range is 15,500 - 15,800, the pressure range is 16,300 - 16,500, and the market is expected to fluctuate upwards. - The recommended strategy for 20 - grade rubber is also to buy on dips. The main logic is that the dark - colored rubber has reached an inventory inflection point, the price of Thai glue is firm, the production in the fourth quarter has declined, and there is still support below. The support range is 12,700 - 12,800, the pressure range is 13,420 - 13,805, and the market is expected to recover from the bottom. [10] 3.2 Futures Market Review 3.2.1 Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Percentage Change (%) | Daily Change | Trading Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rubber Main - continuous | 16,575 | 1.62 | 265 | 270,154 | 162,081 | | 20 - grade Rubber Main - continuous | 13,445 | 1.70 | 225 | 50,956 | 49,041 | | Singapore TSR20 Main - continuous | 192 | 1.11 | 2 | 41 | 18,914 | [10] 3.2.2 Futures Market Warehouse Receipt Situation - The latest warehouse receipt volume of 20 - grade rubber is 50,803, with a year - on - year change of - 17.78%. The warehouse receipts have rebounded from a low level recently, and the market's expectation of inventory accumulation has resurfaced. - The latest warehouse receipt volume of rubber is 112,570, with a year - on - year change of - 38.33%. The warehouse receipts were significantly cancelled again today, the futures inventory has dropped sharply year - on - year, the delivery risk of futures contracts has increased, which supports the RU futures price. [16] 3.3 Spot Market Trends | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Natural Rubber (yuan/ton) | 16,225 | - 109 | - 685 | | Yunnan Glue (yuan/ton) | 14,200 | 0 | - 1,800 | | Thai Hat Yai Glue (Thai baht/kg) | 61 | 1 | - 5 | | Thai Hat Yai Cup Lumps (Thai baht/kg) | 54 | 0 | - 7 | | Thai 20 - grade Standard Rubber in Qingdao Bonded Area (US dollars/ton) | 1,965 | 10 | - 95 | [21] 3.4 Basis and Spread Situation | Futures | Spread Type | Present Value | Month - on - Month | Year - on - Year | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | RU Main Contract Basis | Basis | - 110 | 10 | 500 | | NR Main Contract Basis | Basis | 1,770 | 20 | 175 | | Thai Mixed - RU | Non - standard Basis | - 1,135 | 40 | - 125 | | SVR3L - RU | Non - standard Basis | 215 | 10 | 385 | | RU - NR | Cross - variety Spread | 3,130 | 25 | 585 | | Full - latex - Thai Mixed | Light - dark Colored Rubber Spread | 850 | - 30 | 385 | [26] 3.5 Inter - month Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Prediction | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rubber | 5 - 9 | 90 | - 15 | 260 | Range Oscillation | Wait and See | | 20 - grade Rubber | 3 - 4 | - 55 | - 10 | - 205 | Range Oscillation | Wait and See | [28]